National Occupancy Rates for Namibia, April 2024
Analysis
According to the latest data released by the Hospitality Association of Namibia, and reports, European markets continue to dominate Namibia's tourism industry, with a significant increase in visitors from other European countries as well. (See Figure 2). This trend aligns with the sustained popularity of Namibia as a tourist destination, driven by factors such as its scenic beauty, diverse wildlife, and unique cultural experiences. The coastal region and the central region of Namibia have recorded the highest occupancy rates for April 2024, indicating their appeal to tourists.
In April 2024, the national occupancy rate in Namibia increased to 58.19% from 49.24% recorded in March 2024, representing a notable increase of 8.95%. (See Figure 1). The central region recorded the highest occupancy rate of 66.77%, followed by the coastal region with 62.95%. These figures highlight the attractiveness of these regions to visitors.
Furthermore, the northern region of Namibia recorded the highest occupancy rate for leisure activities at 97.02%, indicating its popularity among tourists seeking leisure experiences. The southern region followed closely with a leisure occupancy rate of 92.1%. In terms of business occupancy rates, the southern region recorded the highest rate at 7.9%, while the northern region had the lowest occupancy rate of 2.79%. The coastal region recorded a leisure occupancy rate of 90.96% and a business occupancy rate of 9.04%. On a national scale, the overall distribution of occupancy rates was 86.38% for leisure, 13.26% for business, and 0.35% for conferences.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (April 2023- April 2024)
Source: H.A.N & HEI Research
Figure 2: Number of national occupants by citizenship
Source: H.A.N & HEI Research
Outlook
We anticipate the positive trend for the occupancy to continue in the short to medium term. This could be influenced by Namibia Wildlife Resorts (NWR) recent announcement on the reopening of the Bo Plaas campsite along the Orange River which could attract more tourists, coupled with Namibia preparing to host major events including the Inaugural Global African Hydrogen Summit in the coming months influencing the conference and the business segments.
In November 2023, Namibia experienced a decline in national occupancy rates, dropping from 65% in October to 49%. This report provides an analysis of the regional variations in occupancy rates, highlights the year-on-year improvements, and discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Additionally, it explores the primary drivers of tourism activities, the contribution of the domestic market, and the role of international tourists.
Regional Analysis: Northern Region: The northern region recorded the highest occupancy rate in November 2023, reaching 51.4%, Coastal Region: The coastal region closely followed with an occupancy rate of 50.1%, Southern Region: The southern region had the lowest occupancy rate at 41.4%.
Yearly Improvements: The national occupancy rates for the 11 months averaged 52.2%, showcasing significant improvement compared to the average of 40.4% for the same period last year. This improvement can be attributed to the influx of investors visiting Namibia for green hydrogen pilot projects, particularly in coastal towns.
Comparison with Previous Years: November 2023 vs. November 2022: The national occupancy rate experienced a minimal decrease of 1% from 50.2% in November 2022, November 2023 vs. November 2019: The national occupancy rate saw a 7% decline from pre-pandemic levels, standing at 56.4%. This highlights that the tourism industry is still recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Leisure Tourism vs. Business Travel: Leisure-related occupancy rates constituted a significant 98.9% in November 2023, showcasing a notable increase of 9.3% from October. On the other hand, the business travel segment accounted for only 1.0%, experiencing a decline from 9.9% in October.
Domestic Market Contribution: The domestic market contributed 15.8% to the national occupancy rates in November 2023, indicating a slight increase from October. However, this suggests subdued domestic tourism activities, emphasizing the need for incentives and initiatives to encourage domestic demand. Special travel packages, discounts, and promotional deals could enhance the appeal and affordability of domestic travel for residents.
Role of International Tourists: Key countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and Australia contributed to 48.4% of the total international occupancy demand in November 2023, showing a substantial increase from October. This highlights the growing dependence of Namibia's tourism sector on international arrivals, with a sustained positive trajectory throughout the year.
Outlook: Looking ahead, Namibia Wildlife Resorts (NWR) plans to kick off its Black Friday Specials from November 24 to November 30, 2023. These exclusive vouchers offer affordable opportunities for avid travelers to explore the country's diverse attractions. With these enticing specials, NWR aims to extend accessible options. We anticipate that the tourism sector will maintain its favorable trajectory for December 2023 as it is a festive season.
Conclusion: While November 2023 saw a decline in national occupancy rates, the overall trend indicates an improvement compared to the previous year. The report emphasizes the significance of international tourists, the need for domestic market incentives, and the upcoming Black Friday Specials as potential drivers for the tourism sector. As Namibia continues to fully recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism, strategic measures should be implemented to ensure sustainable growth in tourism activities.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (November 2022- November 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates (%), Namibia (November 2019, November 2022 vs November 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Analysis
During the month of October 2023, national occupancy rates in Namibia remained at 65% same as recorded for September 2023. When compared to the pre-COVID levels of October 2019, there was a decline of 4% in national occupancy rates (refer to Figure 1). Upon regional analysis, the coastal region of the country achieved the highest occupancy rate at 71.9% for October 2023, closely followed by the northern region at 69.2%. Conversely, the central part of the country reported the lowest occupancy rate, standing at 60.8%. The surge in tourist arrivals at coastal towns is attributed to favorable weather conditions, attracting more visitors seeking to enjoy the beaches and outdoor activities.
Leisure tourism remains the primary driver of these rates in Namibia. During the reviewed period, leisure-related occupancy rates constituted a significant 89.6% of the total national occupancy rates, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.9% from the 88.7% recorded in September 2023. In contrast, the business travel segment accounted for 9.9%, a slight decrease from the 10% recorded in September 2023.
The domestic market contributed 14.8% and 17.5% to the national occupancy during the review month, indicating a decline from the 17.5% recorded in September 2023. This decline suggests subdued demand for domestic accommodation services, highlighting the need to stimulate domestic tourism demand. This could be achieved through the implementation of special travel packages, discounts, and promotional deals to enhance the appeal and affordability of domestic travel for local residents.
The majority of the national occupancy was attributed to international tourists, with a substantial demand for occupancy originating from countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, collectively accounting for 42.3% of international occupancy demand. This trend indicates a pattern of reduced spending by locals on accommodation services
Outlook
As the festive season approaches, Namibia Wildlife Resorts (NWR) is set to kick off its Black Friday Specials from November 24 to November 30, 2023. These exclusive vouchers have been thoughtfully designed with avid travelers in mind, offering affordable opportunities for those eager to explore the country. With these enticing Black Friday Specials, NWR aims to extend accessible options for people interested in discovering the diverse attractions Namibia has to offer.
Anticipating the positive impact of these specials, we expect the tourism sector to maintain its favorable trajectory throughout the remaining two months of the year 2023. The strategic timing aligns with the festive spirit, encouraging more individuals to take advantage of these discounted opportunities and contribute to the continued growth and vibrancy of the tourism industry in Namibia
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (October 2022- October 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Background
The decline in airport arrivals during September 2023 reflects a concerning trend in Namibia's tourism industry. The reduction in domestic and regional arrivals highlights the impact of rising living costs due to inflation. This financial strain led to a decline in travelers' confidence, prompting a cautious approach towards travel expenditures. The data underscores the need for strategic interventions and policies to bolster domestic and regional tourism, focusing on affordability and consumer confidence to revive the tourism sector and stimulate overall economic growth.
Analysis
In September 2023, total airport arrivals decreased to 39,921, down from the 42,518 arrivals recorded in August 2023, marking a 24.1% monthly decline (Figures 1 & 2). This decline was primarily due to an 18% decrease in domestic arrivals, followed by a 5% decline in regional airport arrivals (Figure 3). The reduction in domestic and regional travelers' confidence was linked to a high cost of living caused by a monthly increase in the inflation rate, leading to cautious spending on travel activities. Despite this, international arrivals accounted for 47.7% of the total arrivals in September 2023, with regional arrivals making up 39.5%, and domestic arrivals contributing to the remaining 12.7%.
On an annual basis, total airport arrivals experienced a significant decline of 52.7%. This decrease can be attributed to weakened travelers' confidence resulting from subdued consumer consumption patterns (Figure 4).
Figure 1: Monthly HKIA Arrivals September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC &HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Year on Year % changes HKIA Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 3: Total International, Regional vs. Domestic Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 4: Month on Month % changes HKIA Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
As the country approaches the festive season, with holiday packages and specials and the officially launched online tourist visa application service by the Ministry of Home Affairs, immigration, safety and security that allows travelers across the world to apply for tourist or holiday visas to Namibia from the comfort of their homes. We anticipate arrivals to increase in the short to medium term.
Analysis
In September 2023, national occupancy rates in Namibia stood at 65% a decline from 69% recorded in August 2023 (see Figure 1). This translated into a 4% monthly decline. When examining regional data, the northern region of the country achieved the highest occupancy rate at 68.9% for September 2023, followed by the central region at 66%. The coastal region reported the lowest occupancy rate for the second consecutive month at 57.8%. The surge in occupancy rates in the northern region could be attributed to the World Skills competition held in September, which could have attracted a significant influx of visitors, leading to heightened demand for accommodation facilities in the northern part of the country.
Furthermore, quarter 3 recorded a National occupancy rate of 65% an increase from 54.6% compared to quarter 3 last year and slightly higher than 64.7% recorded in 2019 pre-Covid. The Hospitality Association of Namibia attributed this growth primarily to a rise in arrivals from Central Europe. Both the German-speaking countries (D.A.CH) and France and Italy experienced increases of over 3% compared to 2019 levels. (See Figure 2).
The primary driver of these rates in Namibia remains leisure tourism. During the period under review, leisure-related occupancy rates constituted a substantial 88.7% of the total national occupancy rates, marking a decline from the 95.06% % recorded in August 2023.
Conversely, the business travel segment accounted for a 10% increase from 4.13% of the national occupancy rates recorded in August 2023. This signal improved business-related tourism activities.
The domestic market contributed 17.5% to the national occupancy during the review month, representing an increase from 14.22% recorded in August 2023. The decline indicates improved demand for domestic accommodation services. Most of the national occupancy was attributed to international tourists, with a substantial demand for occupancy originating from countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, accounting for 40.4% of international occupancy demand. This indicates a trend of reduced spending by locals on accommodation services.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (September 2022- September 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (Q3 2023 vs 2019(pre-Covid) & 2022(post-Covid)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
As the country approaches the festive season, with holiday packages and specials expected to be announced soon, we anticipate the tourism sector to maintain its favorable trajectory in the short to medium term. Top of Form
Analysis
In August 2023, national occupancy rates in Namibia saw a notable increase, rising to 69% from the previous month's figure of 61% (see Figure 1). This reflects an 8% month-over-month increase. When examining regional data, the northern region of the country achieved the highest occupancy rate at 76.4% for August 2023, followed by the southern region at 65.4%. In contrast, the coastal region reported the lowest occupancy rate at 61.9%. The surge in occupancy rates in the northern region could be attributed to the Ongwediva annual trade fair held in August, which attracted a significant influx of visitors, leading to heightened demand for accommodation facilities in the northern part of the country.
On an annual basis, national occupancy rates experienced an 8% increase. The primary driver of these rates in Namibia remains leisure tourism. During the period under review, leisure-related occupancy rates constituted a substantial 95.06% of the total national occupancy rates, marking a significant increase from the 93.65% recorded in July 2023.
Conversely, the business travel segment accounted for only 4.13% of the national occupancy rates for August 2023 compared to 5.67% recorded the prior month signaling a continued subdued environment for business-related tourism activities.
In terms of the domestic market, it contributed only 14.22% to the national occupancy during the review month, representing a decline from the 22.1% recorded in July 2023. This decline underscores weak demand for domestic occupancies. The majority of the national occupancy was attributed to international tourists, with a substantial demand for occupancy originating from countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, accounting for 34.33% of international occupancy demand. This indicates a trend of reduced spending by locals on accommodation services.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (August 2022- August 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (August 2019, August 2022 & August 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
We anticipate the tourism sector to maintain its favorable trajectory in the short to medium term.
- Analysis
The national occupancy rates increased to 60.98% for July 2023 from 51.18% recorded in June 2023 (Figure 1). This translated into a 10.3% monthly increase. The monthly increase could be primarily attributed to July being Namibia's peak tourism season, characterized by ideal weather conditions and a heightened influx of travelers. Breaking down the regional data, the central part of the country recorded the highest occupancy rate of 62.69% for July 2023, followed by the northern part of the country recording 62.54%. The Southern part recorded the lowest occupancy rate of 58.86%.
According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia, the average room occupancy of 60.98% in July 2023 outperformed the July 2019 occupancy by over one percent and is almost 10% higher than the levels of last year (Figure 2).
Namibia’s occupancy rates continue to be driven by leisure activity travelers. During the month under review, occupancy rates for leisure activities made up 93.65% of the national occupancy rates, an increase from the 80.39% recorded for June 2023. This could be driven by low prices for package holidays between June and July 2023 (NSA, NCPI July 2023). Additionally, the business category accounted for only 5.67% of national occupancy for July 2023, a decline of 17.33% that was recorded in June 2023, implying subdued tourism business activities.
The domestic market accounted for only 22.1% of national occupancy during the month under review, a decline from 30.2% recorded in June 2023. The remaining percentage is for international tourists, with a high demand for occupancy from Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, accounting for 28.97% of international occupancy demand. This implies that locals are limited in spending on accommodation services.
2. Outlook and HEI’s sentiments
We anticipate that the tourism sector will maintain its favorable trajectory in the short to medium term. To maintain and capitalize on this positive trend, stakeholders in the tourism industry should focus on providing excellent visitor experiences, promoting responsible tourism practices, and adapting to changing consumer preferences and travel trends. Additionally, diversifying the tourism product and expanding source markets can help ensure a robust and resilient tourism sector in the long run.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (July 2022- July 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (July 2019, July 2022 & July 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
The National occupancy rates increased to 51.2% for June 2023 from 50.8 % recorded in May 2023 (Figure 1). The central part of the country continues to record the highest occupancy rate of 58.4% for June 2023 followed by the coastal part of the country recording 50.7% and the Southern part recording the lowest occupancy rate of 44.10%.
According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia, the months of June 2019 and 2023 ended at nearly the same level of 51% occupancy across the country, with the average occupancy for the first six months of this year at 44,68%, just 2,5% lower than the 47,23% occupancy in the first half of 2019. On a quarterly basis, national occupancy improved during quarter 1 of 2023 recording 38.1% from 22.8% that was recorded during the quarter of 2022 (Figure 2).
Namibia’s occupancy rates continue to be driven by leisure activity travelers. During the month under review, occupancy rates for leisure activities took up 80.1% of the national occupancy rates, a decline from 89.6% that was recorded for May 2023. This could be driven by low demand as a result of an increase in the prices for package holidays between May and June 2023(NSA, NCPI June 2023). Additionally, the business category took up 17.1% of national occupancy for June 2023 an increase from the 10.6% that was recorded in May 2023. This implies an increase in the demand for business-related activities which suggests a vibrant and growing business environment.
The domestic market accounted for only 30.1% of national occupancy during the month under review, an improvement from 22% that was recorded in May 2023 and the remaining percentage is from international tourists, with high demand for occupancy from Germany, Switzerland and Australia accounting for 24.06% of international occupancy demand.
We expect the tourism sector's positive trend to continue upward in the short to medium term. However, there is a need for data on the full tourism spectrum such as (travel agencies and tour operators, adventure tourism, car rental, aviation, and the catering sector) all of which will contribute to Namibia's tourism industry's full impact and value.
Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (June 2022- June 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (Q1 2022 vs Q1 2023)
Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH
- Background
According to the World Tourism Organization, international tourism is on its way back to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people traveling in the first quarter of 2023 as in the same period of 2022. During the first quarter of 2023, international arrivals had reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels. During this period, an estimated 235 million tourists traveled internationally, more than doubling the figure for the same period in 2022. This is an indication that tourism has maintained its resilience. Additionally, according to revised 2022 data, over 960 million tourists traveled internationally last year, implying that two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic numbers were recovered with the African continent reaching 88% of 2019 levels.
The domestic tourism activity, as measured by total airport passenger arrivals, improved significantly year on year with total tourist arrivals increasing year on year to 81 614 for the first quarter of 2023. The recovery could be primarily attributed to the normalization of travel activity following the removal of the Covid-19 restrictions as the economy opened up. The Covid-19 pandemic, as well as shifting consumer preferences and more significant international developments, many of which cannot always be easily predicted and catered to, have forced Namibia's tourism industry to adapt over the past few years. Namibia is known for its stunning landscapes, rich biodiversity, and unique cultural experiences, making it an attractive tourist destination in the region and on the continent.
2. Analysis
2.1 Quarter 1 2023
During quarter 1 of 2023 total arrivals were 37.0% lower than the pre-pandemic level when compared to the first quarter of 2019 (pre-pandemic period), the yearly increase in airport passenger arrivals was reflected in both international and regional arrivals. Quarter-on-quarter, the total number of tourist arrivals declined by 15.6% from 96 755 recorded during the fourth quarter of 2022. This could be attributed to seasonal patterns that influence traveler’s choices. Furthermore, international arrivals increased year on year, from 18 207 recorded during the first quarter of 2022 to 37 654 recorded in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, regional arrivals increased from 30 890 recorded in the first quarter of 2022 to 43 960 recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The increase in international and regional arrivals could be attributed to an improvement in consumer confidence that could have led to a high demand in traveling activities.
2.2 May 2023
During the month under review (May 2023) a total airport arrival declined to 40902, down from 43943 arrivals recorded in April 2023. This translated into a 6% monthly decline (Figure 1). The decline was attributed to a decline in Hosea Kutako International Airport (HKIA) with a decline of 11% followed by the regional airport arrivals declining by 5%. This could have been attributed to low regional and international travelers’ confidence ascribed to a high cost of living, leading to cautious spending on traveling activities. Notwithstanding this, total airport arrivals for May 2023 were driven by international arrivals taking up 43.3% of total arrivals followed by regional arrivals with 40.8% and the remaining 15.9% was domestic arrivals.
On an annual basis, total airport arrivals increased by 32.7% when compared to 2022. This increase could be attributed to improved travelers’ confidence amidst the confluence of factors that influences consumers spending patterns (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Monthly Total Airport Arrivals (May 2022 – May 2023)
Source: NAC &HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: International, Regional vs. Domestic Arrivals (May 2022 – May 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
3. Outlook
The economic environment will continue to be the primary determinant of how effectively the tourism sector recovers in 2023 and beyond. However, we anticipate an increase in arrivals for the month of June, particularly domestic arrivals, given that June is a school holiday month, and as a result, we expect an increase in demand for travel-related activities.