Category: Retail

                                              Report by Monika Kristof

New Vehicle Sales Report, Namibia: December 2021

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales for Namibia declined to 734 for December 2021 from 752 that was recorded in November 2021. See figure 1
• The decline in new vehicles sales for December  2021 was mainly driven by low sales of passenger vehicles and extra heavy vehicles
• A total of 9414 new vehicles were sold during the year 2021 compared to 7612 new vehicles sold in 2020
• On a 12 months, cumulative basis between December 2020 and December  2021, a total of 10114 new vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 8326 vehicles sold for the period of December 2019 to December  2020

Analysis

• On an annual basis, vehicle sales experienced a growth of 9.19% from (-21.56). This was due to improvements in consumer confidence. See figure 2
• The number of passenger vehicle sales sold for December 2021 declined  to 362  from 376 vehicles sold in November 2021, this was influenced by the slump in demand and consumer confidence
• Extra heavy new vehicle sales declined to 33 from 36 vehicles sold in November 2021. This was due to weak demand for heavy goods transportation services

Outlook

• The economic outlook remains subdued but the improvement and adjustment to the trading conditions are slowly returning to boost the transport sector. The overall consumer confidence is on the recovery path albeit at a very slow pace due to the uncertainty of Covid-19

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (December 2020 – December 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (December 2020-December 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales for Namibia declined to 714 for October 2021 from 767 vehicles sold in September 2021. See figure 1
• A drop in new vehicles sold  for October 2021 was on the back of a dip in sales of passenger vehicles and extra heavy vehicles
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between October 2020 to October 2021, a total of 9885 new vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 8774 vehicles sold for the same period last year. This translated into a growth of 13%

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a growth from (-20%) to (12%). The growth in the vehicle sales sector came as a result of improvements in individuals and businesses confidence in the roll-out of vaccines. See figure 2
• Passengers vehicle sales declined to 356 from 380 vehicles sold for October 2021. This was influenced by seasonality in spending patterns.
• The number of extra heavy vehicles sold for October 2021 declined to 35 vehicles from 58 vehicles sold for September 2021. This was influenced by a low demand for heavy material transportation services
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 295 from 304 recorded for September 2021 as a consequence of restrained light commercial operations

Outlook

• New vehicle sales sector appears to have stabilized in relation to the Covid 19 period. There seems to be an appetite for second hand vehicles as price consideration is becoming a determining factor.
• We expect new vehicle sales for the last two months of 2021 to be in a modest upward trend as we are approaching the festive season.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (October 2020 – October 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth rate (October 2020- October 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Namibia’s vehicle sales declined  to 764 vehicles for  August 2021 from 800 vehicles sold  for July 2021. See figure 1
• The decline  in vehicles sales for August 2021 was mainly driven by low  sales in passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles.
• Passenger vehicle sales declined by 13% for August 2021 when compared to July 2021.
• Light commercial  vehicle sales declined by 6% for August 2021 when compared to July 2021
• Extra Heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 238% for August 2021 when compared to July 2021
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between August 2020 to August 2021 a total of 9873 vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 8955 vehicles sold for the period of August 2019 to August 2020

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a growth from (-39.11%) to (38.38%), this was  due to the base effect of the 2020 Covid-19 restrictions. See figure 2
• Passenger vehicle sales declined to 340  from 389   vehicles sold in July 2021, this was influenced by the lack of demand and low consumer confidence as individuals and businesses spending remains subdued
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined  to 354  from 376 recorded for July 2021, this was due to

subdued activities for light  commercial operations

• The number of extra heavy vehicles sold for August 2021 increased  to 44 from 13 vehicles sold for July 2021, this was influenced by improvements in construction and e-commerce activities which resulted in an increase in demand for material transportation, this indicates that production is slowly returning

Outlook

• The performance of the vehicle sales sector remains dependent on  consumers and businesses confidence to purchase new vehicles.
• The consumer and businesses confidence are still on the recovery path albeit at a very slow pace due to future income uncertainties.
• We project that the vehicle sales sector will remain under pressure for September 2021.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (August 2020 – August 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Month on Month and Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (August 2020- August 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales for Namibia increased to 767 for September 2021 from 764 vehicles sold for August 2021. See figure 1
• An increase in new vehicles sales for September 2021 was driven by high sales of extra heavy vehicles and  passenger vehicles
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between September 2020 to September 2021, a total of 10045 new vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 9021 vehicles sold for the same period last year. This indicates a marginal improvement in consumers and businesses confidence in the market.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a growth from (-25.4%) to (18.1%). This was due to the base effects of Covid-19 restrictions.  See figure 2
• Passengers vehicle sales increased to 380 from 340 vehicles sold for August 2021. This came as a result of improvements in retail trade.
• The number of extra heavy vehicles sold for September 2021 increased to 58 from 44 vehicles sold for August 2021.  This was influenced by a high demand for material transportation services.
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 304 from 354 recorded for August 2021 as a consequence of  subdued light commercial operations

Outlook

• Improvements in the sales of new vehicles indicates that individuals and businesses confidence to purchase new vehicles is returning  albeit at a very slow pace
• We expect new vehicle sales for October 2021 to continue with a modest upward trend.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (September 2020 – September 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth rate (September 2020- September 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Namibia’s vehicle sales declined  to 800 vehicles for  July 2021 from 843 vehicles sold  for June 2021. See figure 1
• The decline  in vehicles sales for July 2021 was mainly driven by low  sales in extra heavy vehicles and passenger vehicles
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined by 75% for  July 2021 when compared to June 2021.
• Passenger vehicle sales declined by 10% for July 2021 when compared to June 2021
• Light  commercial vehicle sales increased by 14% when compared to June 2021
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between July 2020 to July 2021 a total of 9778 vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 9264 vehicles sold for the period of July 2019 to July 2020

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a growth from a depressing  (-49.21%) to (62.68%), due to the base effect of the 2020 Covid-19 restrictions. See figure 2
• Extra heavy vehicle sales declined to 13 from 52   vehicles sold in June 2021, this was influenced by subdued activities for extra heavy commercial operations
• The number of passenger vehicles  sold for July 2021  declined to 389 from 430 vehicles sold for June 2021, this was influenced by the lack of demand and low consumer confidence as individuals and businesses spending remains subdued
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased to 376  from 331 recorded for June 2021, this was due to improvements in light commercial operations

Outlook

• The retail sector remains subdued but the re-opening of trade conditions is anticipated to boost the transport sector.
• The consumer confidence is on the recovery path albeit at a very slow pace due to a general a decline in purchasing power.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (July 2020 – July 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (July 2020-July 2021), Namibia

By Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Namibia’s vehicle sales increased to 843 vehicles for  June 2021 from 792 vehicles sold  for May 2021.See figure 1
• An increase in vehicles sales for June 2021 was mainly driven by high sales of passenger vehicles and extra heavy vehicles
• Light  commercial vehicle sales recorded a decline for June 2021 when  compared to the previous month
• A total number of 4883 vehicles were sold during the first half  of 2021 compared to 3517 vehicles sold during the same period of 2020
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between June 2020 to June 2021 a total of 9745 vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 9572 vehicles sold for the period of June 2019 to June 2020

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a skyrocketing growth from a depressing  (-50.81%) to (77.22%), due to the base effect of the depressing lockdown of 2020. See figure 2
• The number of passenger vehicle sales sold for June 2021  increased  to 430  from 360 vehicles sold for May 2021, this was influenced by the upturn in demand and consumer confidence
• Extra heavy vehicle sales increased to 52 from 33 vehicles sold in May 2021, this was due to the improvement in trading condition
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 331  from 371 recorded for May 2021 ,this was due to the continuous slow recovery in light commercial operations

Outlook

• The economic outlook remains subdued but the improvement and adjustment to the trading conditions is returning to boost the transport sector. The overall consumer confidence is on the recovery path albeit at a very slow pace due to the uncertainty of Covid-19

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (June 2020 – June 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (June 2020-June 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• A total of 755 new vehicles were sold in April 2021,which is a decline from 908 vehicles that were sold in March 2021.See figure 1
• The drop in the number of new vehicles sold for April 2021  was driven by a decline in sales of   light commercial vehicles and medium commercial vehicles
• A total of 3248 new vehicles were sold in the first four months of 2021

• The annual inflation rate for April  2021 increased to 3.9% from 1.6% recorded for the same period last year. See Figure 1
• On a 12 months period April 2021 recorded the highest annual inflation rate.
• The main drivers of the increase in the annual inflation rate were ,transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, housing, water ,electricity, gas and other fuels, communications and food and non-alcoholic beverages categories .See figure 2
• The hotels and cafes inflation remain in negative territory .

Analysis

• Namibia recorded an annual growth of new vehicles sold  between April 2020 and April 2021 from (-15.65) to (21.79%),this was due to improved consumer confidence on the global vaccine roll out. See figure 2
• Light commercial vehicles declined by 34% between March and April 2021,this was due to slow commercial operations
• Medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 67% between March and April 2021,this was due to subdued  commercial operations
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 69% between March and April 2021, an increasing number of construction and e-commerce activities resulted in an increase in demand for material transportation, which, in turn, resulted in increased sales of these vehicles ,this is an indication that production is returning

Outlook

• The performance of the vehicle sales sector is dependent on consumers confidence to spend and  Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)
• The aggressive roll out of the vaccine will lead to increased consumer confidence
• We project  a better performance of the vehicle sales sector for the second quarter of 2021 compared to 2020. 

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (April 2020 – April 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (April  2020-April 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The number of vehicles sold for March 2021   increased to 908 vehicles   from 891 vehicles sold for February 2021. (See figure 1).
• An increase in vehicle sales for March 2021 was driven by an increase in sales of light commercial vehicles and medium commercial vehicles .
• Passenger , heavy commercial vehicles and extra heavy commercial  vehicles sales declined for march 2021 .

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced growth of (2.94%)  from a depressing  (-6.38%) recorded for the same period last year. This was driven by  the improvement in consumer confidence. (See figure 2).
• March 2021 recorded the highest number of vehicles sold during a 12 months period, this was attributed to consumers regaining confidence after the difficult 2020  and  covid 19 vaccine rollouts.
• Passenger  vehicles recorded the biggest drop for March 2021 from 409 to 357 vehicles ,this is due to a low demand for these vehicles which is attributed to a lack of income.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined from 55 to 29 vehicles for march 2021 ,this was influenced by subdued activity in commercial operations.

Outlook

• The performance of vehicle sales sector for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to remain positive especially for commercial vehicles segment as operations are starting to normalize after a difficult 2020.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (March 2020- March 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (March 2020-March 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• A total of 891 new vehicles were sold in February 2021 which is 197 vehicles  more than the vehicles sold for January 2021. See figure 1.
• An increase in the number of vehicles sold for February 2021  was driven by high sales of  commercial vehicles.
• A total of 1585 new vehicles were sold in the first two months of 2021.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales declined to (-9.58) from (-7.87)  recorded for  February 2020 , this was caused by  both demand and supply disruptions influenced by Covid-19. See figure 2.
• Light commercial vehicles sales increased from 301 to 402 ,this was due to an increase in business  operations as businesses are starting to fully operate.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicles sales increased from 19 to 55 vehicles for February 2021,this was due to increased commercial operations.
• Passenger vehicle sales increased  from 355  to 409 for February 2021,this was due to an uptick in consumer confidence.

Outlook

• The increase in the number of new commercial vehicles is an indication that confidence is returning albeit at a very slow rate.
• We anticipate that new vehicle sales for March  2021 will continue with a slow upward trend.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (February 2020 – February 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (February  2020-February 2021), Namibia

Report by: Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Marginally, January 2021 recorded a sale of 694 new vehicles down from 700 new vehicles that were sold in the previous month. See figure 1.
• The decline in new vehicles sold for January 2021 was driven by poor sales experienced for the light commercial vehicles market.
• Passenger vehicle sales experienced a growth in   sales for January 2021.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sale further declined to (-17.30) from (-12.48) that was recorded for the same period last year, this was caused both demand and supply disruptions brought by the pandemic. See figure 2.
• The monthly increase in the sales of passenger vehicles from 330 to 355 recorded for January 2021 this was influenced by an upturn in consumers confidence.  
• The monthly decline in the number of light commercial vehicles sales from 315 to 301 was influenced by business adjusting to operate under the new normal.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined from 32 to 19 vehicles as compared to the previous month, this was due to low demand in the economic environment.

Outlook

• The uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of the vaccine and the duration and severity of the COVID-19 crisis makes it hard to anticipate for a full recovery.
• We anticipate that new vehicle sales for the month of February 2021 will remain subdued.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (January 2020 – January 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (January 2020-January 2021), Namibia