Category: Retail

By Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Namibia’s vehicle sales increased to 843 vehicles for  June 2021 from 792 vehicles sold  for May 2021.See figure 1
• An increase in vehicles sales for June 2021 was mainly driven by high sales of passenger vehicles and extra heavy vehicles
• Light  commercial vehicle sales recorded a decline for June 2021 when  compared to the previous month
• A total number of 4883 vehicles were sold during the first half  of 2021 compared to 3517 vehicles sold during the same period of 2020
• On a 12 months cumulative basis between June 2020 to June 2021 a total of 9745 vehicles were sold for Namibia compared to 9572 vehicles sold for the period of June 2019 to June 2020

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced a skyrocketing growth from a depressing  (-50.81%) to (77.22%), due to the base effect of the depressing lockdown of 2020. See figure 2
• The number of passenger vehicle sales sold for June 2021  increased  to 430  from 360 vehicles sold for May 2021, this was influenced by the upturn in demand and consumer confidence
• Extra heavy vehicle sales increased to 52 from 33 vehicles sold in May 2021, this was due to the improvement in trading condition
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 331  from 371 recorded for May 2021 ,this was due to the continuous slow recovery in light commercial operations

Outlook

• The economic outlook remains subdued but the improvement and adjustment to the trading conditions is returning to boost the transport sector. The overall consumer confidence is on the recovery path albeit at a very slow pace due to the uncertainty of Covid-19

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (June 2020 – June 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (June 2020-June 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• A total of 755 new vehicles were sold in April 2021,which is a decline from 908 vehicles that were sold in March 2021.See figure 1
• The drop in the number of new vehicles sold for April 2021  was driven by a decline in sales of   light commercial vehicles and medium commercial vehicles
• A total of 3248 new vehicles were sold in the first four months of 2021

• The annual inflation rate for April  2021 increased to 3.9% from 1.6% recorded for the same period last year. See Figure 1
• On a 12 months period April 2021 recorded the highest annual inflation rate.
• The main drivers of the increase in the annual inflation rate were ,transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, housing, water ,electricity, gas and other fuels, communications and food and non-alcoholic beverages categories .See figure 2
• The hotels and cafes inflation remain in negative territory .

Analysis

• Namibia recorded an annual growth of new vehicles sold  between April 2020 and April 2021 from (-15.65) to (21.79%),this was due to improved consumer confidence on the global vaccine roll out. See figure 2
• Light commercial vehicles declined by 34% between March and April 2021,this was due to slow commercial operations
• Medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 67% between March and April 2021,this was due to subdued  commercial operations
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 69% between March and April 2021, an increasing number of construction and e-commerce activities resulted in an increase in demand for material transportation, which, in turn, resulted in increased sales of these vehicles ,this is an indication that production is returning

Outlook

• The performance of the vehicle sales sector is dependent on consumers confidence to spend and  Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)
• The aggressive roll out of the vaccine will lead to increased consumer confidence
• We project  a better performance of the vehicle sales sector for the second quarter of 2021 compared to 2020. 

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (April 2020 – April 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (April  2020-April 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The number of vehicles sold for March 2021   increased to 908 vehicles   from 891 vehicles sold for February 2021. (See figure 1).
• An increase in vehicle sales for March 2021 was driven by an increase in sales of light commercial vehicles and medium commercial vehicles .
• Passenger , heavy commercial vehicles and extra heavy commercial  vehicles sales declined for march 2021 .

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced growth of (2.94%)  from a depressing  (-6.38%) recorded for the same period last year. This was driven by  the improvement in consumer confidence. (See figure 2).
• March 2021 recorded the highest number of vehicles sold during a 12 months period, this was attributed to consumers regaining confidence after the difficult 2020  and  covid 19 vaccine rollouts.
• Passenger  vehicles recorded the biggest drop for March 2021 from 409 to 357 vehicles ,this is due to a low demand for these vehicles which is attributed to a lack of income.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined from 55 to 29 vehicles for march 2021 ,this was influenced by subdued activity in commercial operations.

Outlook

• The performance of vehicle sales sector for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to remain positive especially for commercial vehicles segment as operations are starting to normalize after a difficult 2020.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (March 2020- March 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (March 2020-March 2021), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• A total of 891 new vehicles were sold in February 2021 which is 197 vehicles  more than the vehicles sold for January 2021. See figure 1.
• An increase in the number of vehicles sold for February 2021  was driven by high sales of  commercial vehicles.
• A total of 1585 new vehicles were sold in the first two months of 2021.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales declined to (-9.58) from (-7.87)  recorded for  February 2020 , this was caused by  both demand and supply disruptions influenced by Covid-19. See figure 2.
• Light commercial vehicles sales increased from 301 to 402 ,this was due to an increase in business  operations as businesses are starting to fully operate.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicles sales increased from 19 to 55 vehicles for February 2021,this was due to increased commercial operations.
• Passenger vehicle sales increased  from 355  to 409 for February 2021,this was due to an uptick in consumer confidence.

Outlook

• The increase in the number of new commercial vehicles is an indication that confidence is returning albeit at a very slow rate.
• We anticipate that new vehicle sales for March  2021 will continue with a slow upward trend.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (February 2020 – February 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (February  2020-February 2021), Namibia

Report by: Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• Marginally, January 2021 recorded a sale of 694 new vehicles down from 700 new vehicles that were sold in the previous month. See figure 1.
• The decline in new vehicles sold for January 2021 was driven by poor sales experienced for the light commercial vehicles market.
• Passenger vehicle sales experienced a growth in   sales for January 2021.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sale further declined to (-17.30) from (-12.48) that was recorded for the same period last year, this was caused both demand and supply disruptions brought by the pandemic. See figure 2.
• The monthly increase in the sales of passenger vehicles from 330 to 355 recorded for January 2021 this was influenced by an upturn in consumers confidence.  
• The monthly decline in the number of light commercial vehicles sales from 315 to 301 was influenced by business adjusting to operate under the new normal.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined from 32 to 19 vehicles as compared to the previous month, this was due to low demand in the economic environment.

Outlook

• The uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of the vaccine and the duration and severity of the COVID-19 crisis makes it hard to anticipate for a full recovery.
• We anticipate that new vehicle sales for the month of February 2021 will remain subdued.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (January 2020 – January 2021), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (January 2020-January 2021), Namibia

Report by: Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The number of vehicles sold in November 2020 increased to 698 from 559 vehicles that were sold in October 2020. See figure 1.
• Black Friday specials and the recent introduction of 72-month vehicle loans repayment period could likely have been the cause for the month-on-month boost in the number of vehicles sold in November 2020.
• The Increase in the number of vehicles sold for November was mainly influenced by high sales recorded for Passenger vehicles and Light commercial vehicles.
• Passenger vehicle sales recorded a consecutive growth for the past four months.
• The number of Medium and Heavy commercial vehicles sold recorded a decline in sales between October 2020 and November 2020.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sales experienced growth from (-20.47%) to (-18.80), This was influenced by a high demand for vehicles which is driven by consumer confidence and an increase in income. See figure 2.
• The number of Passenger vehicles sold increased from 296 vehicles sold in October 2020 to 339 vehicles sold in November 2020.
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased from 217 recorded for October 2020 to 321 vehicles sold in November 2020.
• The number of heavy commercial vehicle sales declined from 7 vehicles sold in October 2020 to 3 vehicles sold in November 2020.
• The number of medium commercial vehicle sales declined from 17 vehicles sold in October 2020 to 9 vehicles sold in November 2020.The decline is influenced by lack of consumer confidence which decreases the demand for vehicles.

Outlook

• As the year 2020 is coming to an end in a few weeks time, auto manufacturers and dealerships are pushing hard to meet 2020 sales targets. This combined with appealing holiday promotions and the need to make up for slow sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• We anticipate that vehicle sales which is a leading indicator for consumer behavior will show an upward trend for the month of December 2020.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (November 2019–November 2020), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (November 2019-November 2020), Namibia

Report by: Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The number of new vehicles sold for December 2020 increased to 700 from 698 vehicles sold for November 2020. See figure 1.
• The Increase in the number of vehicles sold for December 2020 was mainly influenced by high sales recorded for extra heavy commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles, this was influenced by the development of commercial operations in logistics.
• On a monthly basis, passenger vehicles sales declined by (-2.7%) and light commercial vehicle sales declined by (-1.9%), between November 2020 and December 2020.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sale declined from (-12.38 %) to (-21.56%), this was influenced by the lack of demand for passenger vehicles. See figure 2.
• The passenger vehicles sold declined from 339 in November 2020 to 330 vehicles in December 2020, this was influenced by income losses experienced by households which emanated from retrenchments due to COVID-19.
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 315 for December 2020 from 321 that was recorded for November 2020, the decline was influenced by the low demand for these vehicles as majority of the business operations stopped for the holiday season.
• The month of December 2020 recorded an increase in sales for heavy commercial vehicles and extra heavy commercial vehicles when compared to November 2020, this was influenced by the development of commercial operations in logistics especially for the health sector and an increase in e-commerce activities which led to an increase in the demand for heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles.

Outlook

• We anticipate that the commercial vehicle sales will increase for 2021, due base effects as business operations are starting to adapt to Covid19.
• However, we expect the passenger vehicle sales to remain subdued as households remain at risk due to continuous retrenchments brought by the pandemic.  

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (December 2019–December 2020), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (December 2019-December 2020), Namibia

Executive summary

• The actual number of vehicles sold for October 2020 declined to 559 from 874 vehicles that were sold in September 2020. See figure 1.
• The largest decline in the number of vehicles sold for October 2020 was influenced by the low sales of Light commercial vehicles.
• Passenger vehicle sales recorded a consecutive growth for the months of September and October 2020.
• A total 8774 vehicles were sold between October 2019 and October 2020.

Analysis

• On an annual basis vehicle sale experienced a decline from (-18.86%) to (-20.47%), the decline was attributed by a lack of consumer confidence and declining disposal income to purchase new vehicles. See figure 2.
• April and May 2020 recorded the least number of vehicle sales as demand weakened considerably because of restrictions in movement induced by the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The number of light commercial vehicles recorded the biggest drop for October 2020, with 217 vehicles sold compared to 537 vehicles sold in September 2020, this was influenced by a lack of consumer demand.
• Passenger vehicle sales increased from 278 vehicles sold in September 2020 to 296 vehicles sold for October 2020, this was due to consumers regaining confidence.

Outlook

• The performance of vehicle sales sector for 2020, was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Vehicle sales remains under pressure, despite the recently introduced repayment period for vehicle loans from 54 to for 72-months.
• We anticipate that vehicle sales which is a leading indicator for consumer behavior will show an upward trend for November and December as we are approaching the holiday season.  

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (October 2019 – October 2020), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (October 2019-October 2020), Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof