Klein Windhoek had the second-highest number of building plans approved with a total of 9 plans valued at N$ 922,000
Figure 1: Monthly Building Plans Approved Vs. Buildings Completed, Windhoek (January 2022- January 2023)
Source: CoW & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Building Plans Approved Monthly % Growth Rates, Windhoek (January 2022- January 2023)
Source: CoW & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
We expect an uptick in the construction sector for 2023. This is supported by the allocations made towards the sector as per the budget statement for FY2023/24. Construction activities include; three new Vocational Training Centres (VTCs) which are under construction in Keetmanshoop, Khorixas, and Nkurenkuru, work has commenced towards the construction of the second Direct Portable Water Reclamation Plant (DPR II), and the upgrading of the Gammams and Otjomuise sewage systems. Moreover, more than N$570 million has been availed in the development budget to cater for the construction and renovation of classrooms as well as other education infrastructures such as hostels and offices
Katutura had the second-highest number of building plans approved with a total of 11 plans valued at N$ 537,000
Figure 1: Monthly Building Plans Approved Vs. Buildings Completed, Windhoek (December 2021- December 2022)
Source: CoW & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Building Plans Approved Monthly % Growth Rates, Windhoek (December 2021- December 2022)
Source: CoW & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
The number of building plans approved for Windhoek continues on a downward trend as such we anticipate the construction industry to remain subdued for the first months of 2023
Credit provided to individuals and businesses in the private sector saw a slight monthly increase of 0.3 percent in December 2022, with credit extended rising by N$ 377 million to N$ 118.179 million from the previous month's figure of N$ 117,802 million. The growth was driven by the demand for installment and leasing options by businesses, as well as other loans and advances by households. However, the demand for credit by businesses remained subdued due to reduced demand and repayments in other loan advances and overdrafts. (See Figure 1)
At the end of December 2022, the total credit extended to the private sector showed an annual increase of 4.2 percent, up from 3.7 percent at the end of November 2022. This growth was mainly driven by the significant increase in installment and leasing options for businesses, which saw a growth rate of 13.8 percent, and other loans and advances for households, which recorded a growth rate of 13.15.7 percent. The Bank of Namibia noted that the demand for credit among businesses was due to the tourism sector's need to increase their fleets, while in households, it was due to the rising cost of living. (See Figures 2 and 3)
Figure 1: Annual % ∆ growth rates on Total Credit Extended to the Private Sector vs. Repo Rate & Interest Rate, (January 2021- December 2022)
Source: BON, NSA & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: The % ∆ in Credit Extended to Businesses per category Year on Year(December 2021-December 2022)
Source: BON & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 3: The % ∆ in Credit Extended to Individuals per category Year on Year,(December 2021-December 2022)
Source: BON & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
Our expectation is that the credit extended to the private sector will continue on an upward trend over the short to medium term at the back of an expected boost in the mining and quarrying sector for 2023. This could lead to an increase in demand for credit by businesses in the mining sector. Households remain under pressure as the cost of borrowing continues to rise.
The annual inflation rate for January 2023 increased to 7.0%, up from 4.6% recorded for the same period last year. (figure 1)
The two major drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were the “food & non-alcoholic beverages”, and transport categories. (figure 2)
On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 1.1% in January 2023 compared to 0.3% recorded in the previous month
Analysis
Food and non-alcoholic beverages which accounts for 16.5% of the NCPI basket annual inflation increased by 14% during the month of January 2023 compared to 5.6% recorded during January 2022. The increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages component was mainly driven by an increase in the price levels of fruit, bread, and cereal accounting for 22.3% respectively
The annual inflation rate for the transport category which accounts for 14.3% of the consumer basket continues to be a driver of the overall inflation although it reduced to 11.1% for January 2023 when compared to 13.5% recorded in January 2022. The decrease in the transport component was mainly driven by a decline in the price levels of operation of personal transport equipment (fuel costs)
A total of N$ 3,085,172.90 worth of shares was traded on the NSX on Wednesday with about N$ 691,488 worth of shares belonging to Shoprite Holdings and N$ 23,000 worth of Namibia Breweries shares on the home front. No ETFs were traded on Wednesday
HEI Market Commentary
From the trading activity that took place:
Shoprite’s share performance on the overall bourse slightly declined as one sell transaction occurred on the markets
Namibia Breweries’ shares were traded reflecting no change in share price.
Name
NSX Local Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Namibian Breweries
NBS
46.00
46.00
0.00%
Nictus Holdings
NHL
1.90
1.90
0.00%
Capricorn
CGP
13.79
13.79
0.00%
First Rand Namibia
FNB
33.51
33.51
0.00%
Standard Bank Namibia
SNO
5.14
5.19
0.97%
Oryx Limited
ORY
11.38
11.38
0.00%
Letshego
LHN
3.51
3.51
0.00%
Namibia Asset Management
NAM
0.68
0.68
0.00%
Stimulus
SILP
127.90
127.90
0.00%
Paratus Namibia Holdings Ltd
PNH
13.19
13.19
0.00%
Mobile Telecommunication Company
MOC
7.06
7.06
0.00%
Alpha Namibia Industries Renewable Power Limited
ANE
9.00
9.00
0.00%
Table 2: Primary listed Trades
Name
South African Dual Listed Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Anglo-American plc
ANM
702.07
679.42
-3.23%
B2Gold Corporation
B2G
61.48
61.33
-0.24%
Oceana Group Limited
OCG
71.18
69.96
-1.71%
Mediclinic International Plc
MEP
108.10
107.30
-0.74%
Truworths
TRW
66.86
65.96
-1.35%
Nedbank Group Limited
NBK
229.88
229.17
-0.31%
Standard Bank Group
SNB
177.97
175.45
-1.42%
Shoprite Holdings
SRH
230.92
230.43
-0.21%
FirstRand Limited
FST
65.54
64.70
-1.28%
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
MMT
19.60
19.59
-0.05%
Old Mutual Ltd
OMM
11.65
11.62
-0.26%
Sanlam Limited
SLA
57.89
58.24
0.60%
Santam Limited
SNM
289.29
286.65
-0.91%
Vukile Property Fund Limited
VKN
13.47
13.28
-1.41%
Investec Limited
IVD
114.20
113.90
-0.26%
PSG Konsult Limited
KFS
12.55
12.55
0.00%
Table 3: Dual Listed Trades
Name
ETFs
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
New Gold Issuer Ltd NM
NGNGLD
307.72
308.26
0.18%
New Gold Palladium ETF
NGNPLD
268.64
251.51
-6.38%
New Gold Platinum ETF N
NGNPLT
163.66
161.20
-1.50%
New Funds S&P NAM Bond
NFNAMA
18.24
18.20
-0.22%
Table 4: ETFs
Exchange Rates @ 05:00
USD/NAD
17.99
EUR/NAD
19.27
GBP/NAD
21.68
EUR/GBP
0.88
EUR/USD
1.07
GBP/USD
1.20
AUD/USD
0.69
USD/JPY
132.17
Commodities @ 05:00
Gold
1,850.85
Silver
21.75
Platinum
922.75
Palladium
1,464.28
WTI
79.09
Brent
85.81
Table 5: Exchange Rates and Commodities
Local News
The Bank of Namibia (BoN) announced a 25 basis points (bpts) increase in the repo rate from 6.75% to 7%, hiking the prime lending rate from 10.5% to 10.75% (Sun Newspaper)
A group of commercial beef producers – mainly previously advantaged farmers – are demanding that government immediately stops meddling in the affairs of the Meat Corporation of Namibia. (New Era Newspaper)
The government could end up spending N$1 billion on the completion of new military headquarters opposite the Suiderhof military base in Windhoek. (The Namibian)
Sub-Sahara News
Among the EFF's proposals to address South Africa's energy crisis is a deal with the Russian state nuclear energy company, Rosatom. (News24)
MTN Group MTNJ.J will invest $1 billion in Ghana over the next five years, the mobile operator said on Wednesday, after the government exempted its Ghanaian unit from tax claims worth about $773 million..(CNBC Africa)
The mayor of Tsumeb, Mathew Hangula, says the town's municipality will issue a media statement this week on the outcome of tests carried out after the town's water was declared unfit for human consumption in December (All Africa News)
International News
Index provider MSCI said on Wednesday it will postpone the implementation of updates to weightings for two of India's Adani Group companies, Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS) and Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS), to the May benchmark review. (Reuters)
Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday, following the broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, on continuing concerns over the outlook for interest rates and a global economic slowdown. The rising geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing in recent days are also weighing on the markets. (RTT News)
World Bank chief David Malpass has announced he will step down in June, nearly a year before the end of his term.Malpass, who was nominated to his five-year term by former United States President Donald Trump in 2019, said on Wednesday he had decided to pursue new challenges after having the “enormous honour and privilege” of leading the international lender.. (Aljazeera News)
New vehicle sales declined to 798 vehicles for January 2023 from 952 vehicles sold in December 2022. This translated into a monthly decline of 16.2%. See figure 1
The decline in new vehicle sales was driven by low sales for all types of vehicles in the market with the main declines recorded for the commercial vehicles market
A total of 11 723 vehicles were sold between January 2022 and January 2023 an improvement from 10 119 vehicles sold between January 2021 and January 2022
Analysis
On an annual basis, new vehicle sales increased by 13.2%, (See figure 2). This could have been attributed to improved consumer confidence amidst the confluence of factors that negatively influenced the demand for credit
Passenger vehicle sales declined to 468 from 504 recorded in December 2022 as a consequence of an increase in the interest rates which led to a rise in the cost of borrowing
Light, medium, and heavy commercial vehicle sales declined significantly for January 2023 in relation to the prior month. This could have been influenced by subdued commercial activities
Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (January 2022- January 2023), Namibia
Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
The global economic environment augmented by the confluence of factors continues to weigh on demand and supply for the retail sector. We expect vehicle sales to remain on an upward trajectory for February 2023
A total of N$ 7,763,995.56 worth of shares was traded on the NSX on Tuesday with about N$ 1,422,893 worth of shares belonging to Anglo-American and trades on the home front. No ETFs were traded on Tuesday
HEI Market Commentary
From the trading activity that took place:
Anglo-American’s share performance on the overall bourse sets its course on an upward trajectory amid the bull-like market conditions on the dual listed markets.
Name
NSX Local Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Namibian Breweries
NBS
46.00
46.00
0.00%
Nictus Holdings
NHL
1.90
1.90
0.00%
Capricorn
CGP
13.79
13.79
0.00%
First Rand Namibia
FNB
33.51
33.51
0.00%
Standard Bank Namibia
SNO
5.14
5.14
0.00%
Oryx Limited
ORY
11.38
11.38
0.00%
Letshego
LHN
3.51
3.51
0.00%
Namibia Asset Management
NAM
0.68
0.68
0.00%
Stimulus
SILP
127.90
127.90
0.00%
Paratus Namibia Holdings Ltd
PNH
13.19
13.19
0.00%
Mobile Telecommunication Company
MOC
7.06
7.06
0.00%
Alpha Namibia Industries Renewable Power Limited
ANE
9.00
9.00
0.00%
Table 2: Primary listed Trades
Name
South African Dual Listed Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Anglo-American plc
ANM
700.25
702.07
0.26%
B2Gold Corporation
B2G
64.74
61.48
-5.04%
Oceana Group Limited
OCG
69.73
71.18
2.08%
Mediclinic International Plc
MEP
107.60
108.10
0.46%
Truworths
TRW
66.22
66.86
0.97%
Nedbank Group Limited
NBK
229.15
229.88
0.32%
Standard Bank Group
SNB
177.83
177.97
0.08%
Shoprite Holdings
SRH
231.30
230.92
-0.16%
FirstRand Limited
FST
64.81
65.54
1.13%
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
MMT
19.73
19.60
-0.66%
Old Mutual Ltd
OMM
11.71
11.65
-0.51%
Sanlam Limited
SLA
57.15
57.89
1.29%
Santam Limited
SNM
291.05
289.29
-0.60%
Vukile Property Fund Limited
VKN
13.60
13.47
-0.96%
Investec Limited
IVD
113.76
114.20
0.39%
PSG Konsult Limited
KFS
12.20
12.55
2.87%
Table 3: Dual Listed Trades
Name
ETFs
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
New Gold Issuer Ltd NM
NGNGLD
309.95
307.72
-0.72%
New Gold Palladium ETF
NGNPLD
267.82
268.64
0.31%
New Gold Platinum ETF N
NGNPLT
162.56
163.66
0.68%
New Funds S&P NAM Bond
NFNAMA
18.21
18.24
0.16%
Table 4: ETFs
Exchange Rates @ 08:00
USD/NAD
17.88
EUR/NAD
19.17
GBP/NAD
21.70
EUR/GBP
0.88
EUR/USD
1.07
GBP/USD
1.21
AUD/USD
0.69
USD/JPY
132.17
Commodities @ 08:00
Gold
1,868.00
Silver
21.96
Platinum
958.15
Palladium
1,548.50
WTI
78.59
Brent
85.07
Table 5: Exchange Rates and Commodities
Local News
As of December 2022, seven months after the deadline for members of parliament to declare their assets, only 39% had done so. (Sun Newspaper)
The Ministry of Industrialization and Trade aims to develop donated land in both the Republic of Congo and in the Democratic Republic of Congo to promote trade in Namibian goods and services in west and central Africa. According to a trade ministry spokesperson, next on the schedule for these developments are the clearing of sites to construct trade. (New Era Newspaper)
Director General of the Namibian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) Stanley Similo said the national broadcaster is currently in the process of acquiring full ownership of the Miss Namibia franchise. (The Namibian)
Sub-Sahara News
Eskom's losses may balloon to R20bn this year - R8bn more than the previous year. (News24)
Digital currency markets are on edge after a flurry of aggressive regulatory actions from U.S. authorities over the past few days. (CNBC Africa)
SA Tourism announced today that it will be pushing ahead with the controversial almost R1 billion Tottenham Hotspur sponsorship proposal. The sponsorship would see the football club advertise South Africa as a tourist destination, Eyewitness News reports. Despite condemnation from various quarters of South African society including President Cyril Ramaphosa, SA Tourism said it will be moving ahead with the next step of the Tottenham Hotspur sponsorship proposal. (All Africa News)
International News
Air India's record aircraft deal has put the Tata Group-owned airline in the league of aspiring global carriers. (Reuters)
European stocks are likely to open on a positive note Tuesday despite lingering worries about higher interest rates (RTT News)
United States President Joe Biden has fired the Architect of the Capitol (AOC), a figure responsible for the upkeep and operation of the buildings that house Congress and other key government offices, amid criticism that he abused his position. (Aljazeera News)
A total of N$ 4,098,557.21 worth of shares was traded on the NSX on Monday with about N$ 1,572,177 worth of shares belonging to Anglo-American and N$ 221,836 from FirstRand Namibia Ltd on the home front. No ETFs were traded on Monday
HEI Market Commentary
From the trading activity that took place:
Anglo-American’s share performance on the overall bourse bounce back to 700 price level after a downward spiral amid tough bearish market conditions
FirstRand Namibia shares were traded resulting in a slight increase in share price at closing.
Name
NSX Local Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Namibian Breweries
NBS
46.00
46.00
0.00%
Nictus Holdings
NHL
1.90
1.90
0.00%
Capricorn
CGP
13.79
13.79
0.00%
First Rand Namibia
FNB
33.50
33.51
0.03%
Standard Bank Namibia
SNO
5.11
5.14
0.59%
Oryx Limited
ORY
11.38
11.38
0.00%
Letshego
LHN
3.51
3.51
0.00%
Namibia Asset Management
NAM
0.68
0.68
0.00%
Stimulus
SILP
127.90
127.90
0.00%
Paratus Namibia Holdings Ltd
PNH
13.19
13.19
0.00%
Mobile Telecommunication Company
MOC
7.03
7.06
0.43%
Alpha Namibia Industries Renewable Power Limited
ANE
9.00
9.00
0.00%
Table 2: Primary listed Trades
Name
South African Dual Listed Ticker
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
Anglo-American plc
ANM
699.11
700.25
0.16%
B2Gold Corporation
B2G
64.49
64.74
0.39%
Oceana Group Limited
OCG
71.58
69.73
-2.58%
Mediclinic International Plc
MEP
107.39
107.60
0.20%
Truworths
TRW
64.42
66.22
2.79%
Nedbank Group Limited
NBK
228.23
229.15
0.40%
Standard Bank Group
SNB
177.50
177.83
0.19%
Shoprite Holdings
SRH
230.68
231.30
0.27%
FirstRand Limited
FST
64.26
64.81
0.86%
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
MMT
19.45
19.73
1.44%
Old Mutual Ltd
OMM
11.67
11.71
0.34%
Sanlam Limited
SLA
56.95
57.15
0.35%
Santam Limited
SNM
291.00
291.05
0.02%
Vukile Property Fund Limited
VKN
13.40
13.60
1.49%
Investec Limited
IVD
112.13
113.76
1.45%
PSG Konsult Limited
KFS
12.30
12.20
-0.81%
Table 3: Dual Listed Trades
Name
ETFs
Price Previous Close 'N$
Price End of Day 'N$
Daily Change %
New Gold Issuer Ltd NM
NGNGLD
310.49
309.95
-0.17%
New Gold Palladium ETF
NGNPLD
271.04
267.82
-1.19%
New Gold Platinum ETF N
NGNPLT
166.01
162.56
-2.08%
New Funds S&P NAM Bond
NFNAMA
18.21
18.21
0.00%
Table 4: ETFs
Exchange Rates @ 08:00
USD/NAD
17.88
EUR/NAD
19.18
GBP/NAD
21.69
EUR/GBP
0.88
EUR/USD
1.07
GBP/USD
1.21
AUD/USD
0.69
USD/JPY
131.62
Commodities @ 08:00
Gold
1,867.40
Silver
21.95
Platinum
959.40
Palladium
1,549.03
WTI
79.12
Brent
85.81
Table 5: Exchange Rates and Commodities
Local News
PB market capitalization rose above £100 billion (R2.1 trillion) for the first time in three years as shareholders rewarded the company for a pivot back toward its fossil-fuel orientation (Sun Newspaper)
The country’s biggest telecommunications provider, Mobile Telecommunications Limited (MTC), is anticipating taking a leap into the financial services arena this year. Providing a glimpse into what can be expected, the company’s spokesman Tim Ekandjo last week hinted that MTC’s mobile financial services will indeed become a reality somewhere during the course of this year. (New Era Newspaper)
An online petition in which Namibians can express their frustration with the public health system and the tenderpreneurs allegedly fleecing it has attracted thousands of signatures. The petition follows a huge public outcry on medical health supply and pharmaceutical tenders worth billions, which are currently under review by the Central Procurement Board of Namibia (CPBN) (The Namibian)
Sub-Sahara News
The Property Practitioners Regulatory Authority (PPRA) has fined an estate agent R25 000 for discriminating against a black tenant. (News24)
The South African rand slid on Monday, after rating agency Moody’s flagged risks from crippling power cuts and as the dollar advanced on investor bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy tight for longer. (CNBC Africa)
Former Minister of Information Dr. Chris Mushowe has died. “We have lost former Minister of Information Dr. Chris Mushowe. May His Soul Rest in Peace," said Nick Mangwana, the permanent secretary for Zimbabwe's Ministry of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services. (All Africa News)
International News
China's capital Beijing will support leading enterprises in building large artificial intelligence (AI) models that can challenge ChatGPT, the city's economy and information technology bureau said on Monday. (Reuters)
European stocks are likely to open on a positive note Tuesday despite lingering worries about higher interest rates (RTT News)
United States fighter jets have shot down an “unidentified object” flying near the Canadian border in the Midwest, the Pentagon said, the latest incident since a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon put North American security forces on high alert. (Aljazeera News)
Namibia’s trade activities increased for 2022 in relation to 2021. Total exports for 2022 stood at N$96.4 billion, representing an increase of 46.3% from N$65.9 billion recorded in 2021 (See figure 1)
In December 2022, the mining and quarrying exported goods to the value of N$4.3 billion, absorbing 49.7 percent of total exports followed by products from the manufacturing industry with an export value of N$3.2 billion
Precious stones (diamonds) had the largest share in Namibia’s total exports ahead of uranium, followed by fish, non-monetary gold, and lastly fruits and nuts accounted for the least share
Similarly imports depict an increase of 34.8% from N$128.3 billion compared to N$95.2 billion recorded in 2021 (See figure 2)
The demand side was largely dominated by products from the manufacturing industry, with an import bill of N$6.8 billion while the mining and quarrying goods imported accounted for 27.9% of total imports for the month of December 2022
Commodities that contributed most to the import bill during the month of December 2022 were petroleum oils, precious stones (diamonds), and motor vehicles for the transportation of goods
Namibia recorded a trade deficit of N$1.1 billion for December 2022, reflecting an improvement of 59.5% and 49.9% when compared to the trade deficits recorded in November 2022 and December 2021 respectively (See figure 3). The improved trade deficit resulted mainly from a decline in the import bill
The country did not record any trade surplus over the period of 2021 to 2022
Figure 1: Total exports value (N$ m), 2021 vs 2022
Source: NSA & HEI Research
Figure 2: Total import value (N$ m), 2021 vs 2022
Source: NSA & HEI Research
Figure 3: Trade balance (N$ m), 2021 vs 2022
Source: NSA & HEI Research
Outlook
With Namibia being heavily reliant on international trade (imports), the country remains vulnerable tocommodityprice shocks brought by the confluence of factors in the global economic environment. Additionally, the continuous trade deficits and capital outflow could weigh on the economic recovery of the country, hence investment in value addition and incentives for local producers remains crucial for Namibia’s trade. We project the trade balance to remain subdued in the short to medium term.
