Background
The decline in airport arrivals during September 2023 reflects a concerning trend in Namibia’s tourism industry. The reduction in domestic and regional arrivals highlights the impact of rising living costs due to inflation. This financial strain led to a decline in travelers’ confidence, prompting a cautious approach towards travel expenditures. The data underscores the need for strategic interventions and policies to bolster domestic and regional tourism, focusing on affordability and consumer confidence to revive the tourism sector and stimulate overall economic growth.
Analysis
In September 2023, total airport arrivals decreased to 39,921, down from the 42,518 arrivals recorded in August 2023, marking a 24.1% monthly decline (Figures 1 & 2). This decline was primarily due to an 18% decrease in domestic arrivals, followed by a 5% decline in regional airport arrivals (Figure 3). The reduction in domestic and regional travelers’ confidence was linked to a high cost of living caused by a monthly increase in the inflation rate, leading to cautious spending on travel activities. Despite this, international arrivals accounted for 47.7% of the total arrivals in September 2023, with regional arrivals making up 39.5%, and domestic arrivals contributing to the remaining 12.7%.
On an annual basis, total airport arrivals experienced a significant decline of 52.7%. This decrease can be attributed to weakened travelers’ confidence resulting from subdued consumer consumption patterns (Figure 4).
Figure 1: Monthly HKIA Arrivals September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC &HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Year on Year % changes HKIA Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 3: Total International, Regional vs. Domestic Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 4: Month on Month % changes HKIA Arrivals (September 2022 – September 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
As the country approaches the festive season, with holiday packages and specials and the officially launched online tourist visa application service by the Ministry of Home Affairs, immigration, safety and security that allows travelers across the world to apply for tourist or holiday visas to Namibia from the comfort of their homes. We anticipate arrivals to increase in the short to medium term.