Executive summary
- During the month of August 2023, 1094 vehicles were sold, from the 1260 vehicles sold in July 2023. This represented a monthly decline of 166 vehicles of 60 vehicles. This translated to a 13% monthly decline (Figure 1)
- On annual basis vehicle sales increased by 4% when compared to 1051 vehicles sold in August 2022, (Figure 1)
- Sales of extra heavy commercial vehicles and busses increased by 36%, and 200% month on month respectively.
- Passenger, light commercial, medium commercial, and heavy vehicles declined by 21%, 8%,18%, and 22% month on month respectively.
- A total of 7805 vehicles were sold during the first 8 months of 2023, a 13% annual increase when compared to the same period last year with a total of 3790 passenger vehicles, 3544 Light commercial vehicles, 181 medium vehicles, 104 heavy commercial vehicles, 176 extra heavy commercial vehicles, and 10 buses.
Analysis
- An increase in vehicle sales between August 2023 and August 2022 can be used as a proxy for consumer confidence
- The monthly decrease in vehicle sales between August and July 2023 was mainly attributed to the low sales of passenger and light commercial vehicle sales. This could be ascribed to low credit demand because of an increase in interest rates in July 2023
- Low sales of commercial vehicles could be attributed to subdued commercial activities hence a low demand for commercial transportation services, however, extra heavy commercial vehicles continue to show increased sales, which could be mainly underpinned by the strong mining activity. On a monthly basis, all commercial vehicle sales declined by 32% for August 2023 from 622 commercial vehicles which were recorded in July 2023. This indicates poor commercial sector performance.
Table 1: Monthly vehicle sales by type
| Market | Aug-23 | Jul-23 | monthly unit change | monthly % change |
| Passenger vehicles | 502 | 638 | -136 | -21 |
| Light commercial vehicles | 505 | 549 | -44 | -8 |
| Medium commercial vehicle sales | 14 | 17 | -3 | -18 |
| Heavy commercial vehicle sales | 7 | 9 | -2 | -22 |
| Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales | 64 | 47 | 17 | 37 |
| Bus | 2 | 0 | 2 | 200 |
Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (August 2023 vs. July 2023)
Source: Lightstone Auto & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle Sales Growth (August 2022- August 2023)
Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
The demand for new vehicles has displayed notable resilience since the start of the year, and we anticipate that vehicle sales will continue to follow an upward growth trajectory in the short to medium term. This expectation may be influenced by the recent decision of the Bank of Namibia’s Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the repo rate unchanged, as announced during their August meeting.