Executive summary
- The annual inflation rate increased to 7.0% for November 2022 from 4.1% recorded in November 2021. See figure 1
- The annual inflation rate continues on an upward trend for 2022 with a slight downtick over the past 3 months
- The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishings household equipment. See figure 2
Analysis
- The annual inflation rate for the transport category increased to 18.3% from 11.9% recorded during the same period last year. This was mainly influenced by an increase in the prices of fuel (diesel) and the increase in the price level of operation of personal transport equipment which increased by 27.3%
- The annual inflation for petrol and diesel rose to 46.1% on a year-on-year basis compared to 7.9% recorded in November 2021
- Hotels, cafes, and restaurants were the second largest contributor to inflation. These components’ annual inflation rate rose to 11.3% compared to 1.0% in relation to the same period last year driven by an increase in demand for accommodation services
Figure 1: Annual Inflation rates in Namibia vs. South Africa
Figure 2: Sub-Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia
Outlook
- With the economy on a recovery path, inflation seems to have found its tipping point and has been on a sluggish downward path. Our biggest indicator is that production output has increased and trade levels have elevated hinting that supply chain problems are easing
- We anticipate that the annual inflation rate will continue on a downward trajectory for the month of December 2022 mainly due to the lower fuel prices as announced by the Ministry of Mines and Energy