Executive Summary
During October 2023, new vehicle sales experienced a month-on-month decline of 13%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. A total of 922 vehicles were sold in October 2023, compared to the 1054 vehicles sold in September 2023, reflecting a reduction of 132 vehicles. (Figure 1)
On an annual basis, vehicle sales decreased by 7.4% for October 2022 when compared to the same period last year. (Figure 1)
Month-on-month only medium commercial vehicles saw an increase in sales, by 18% whilst passenger, light commercial vehicles, heavy commercial vehicles, and extra heavy vehicles declined by 16%, 7%, 38%, and 36% respectively. Sales for busses remained unchanged.
During the first 10 months of 2023, 10764 vehicles were sold, comprising 4762 passenger vehicles, 4428 light commercial vehicles, 218 medium vehicles, 125 heavy commercial vehicles, 235 extra heavy commercial vehicles, and 14 buses. This resulted in a 21% annual growth compared to the corresponding period in the first 10 months of 2022.
Analysis
Total vehicle sales increased by 21% during the first 10 months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. This is an indication of overall improvement in consumer confidence. The continuous decline in monthly vehicle sales since June 2023 could be primarily attributed to diminished credit demand due to high-interest rates and eroded disposable income due to rising inflation.
The total sales of commercial vehicles experienced a 9% decline in October 2023, compared to the 524 units recorded in September 2023. This downturn underscores the suboptimal performance of the commercial sector.
Table 1: Monthly vehicle sales by type
| Market | Oct-23 | Sep-23 | Monthly unit change | Monthly % change |
| Passenger vehicles | 444 | 528 | -84 | -16 |
| Light commercial vehicles | 425 | 458 | -33 | -7 |
| Medium commercial vehicle sales | 20 | 17 | 3 | 18 |
| Heavy commercial vehicle sales | 8 | 13 | -5 | -38 |
| Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales | 23 | 36 | -13 | -36 |
| Bus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (October 2023 vs September 2023)
Source: Lightstone Auto & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle Sales Growth rate (October 2022- October 2023)
Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
The demand for new vehicles has exhibited resilience despite prevailing high-interest rates. However, looking ahead, we anticipate a continued month-on-month decline in vehicle sales in the short to medium term. This projection is influenced by the constraints on consumer confidence stemming from the persistent impact of inflation. As inflation erodes purchasing power and increases the overall cost of living, consumers may exhibit hesitancy in making significant financial commitments such as purchasing new vehicles. This, in turn, is expected to contribute to the anticipated decline in vehicle sales over the remaining months of 2023.