Background
Sub-Saharan Africa is buckling under a third wave of COVID-19 infections that threatens to be even more brutal than the two that came before. This is another indication of the unhealthy divergence in the global economy. There is a clear path for countries with good access to vaccines, where strong recoveries are unfolding, while other countries are still waiting for the vaccines and at risk of falling further behind. Figure 1 below indicates the vaccination speed since November 2020 until May 2021 for advanced and developing economies.
Figure 1: Vaccination Rate (doses administered per 100 population)
Perspective
The growth of infections in sub-Saharan Africa is now the fastest in the world see figure 2 below, with an explosive trajectory that is outpacing the record set in the second wave. The latest (delta) variant—reportedly 60 percent more transmissible than earlier variants—has been detected in 14 countries.
Figure 2: Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa
In Namibia, new cases reached the previous January peak within two weeks, and set new records in the following two weeks later. It is also becoming clearer that by the time a new surge is identified, it may already be too late.
There appears to be a real crisis emerging with the near-term future of the continent will be one of repeated waves of infection. This will lead to an ever-increasing toll on the lives and livelihoods of the region’s most vulnerable, while negatively impacting investment, productivity, and growth.
Outlook
The reality is that the longer the pandemic is left to ravage Sub-Sahara, the more likely it is that ever more dangerous variants of the disease will emerge. Vaccination is not simply an issue of local lives and livelihoods, but carries the value of a global public good. The objective is that the most durable vaccine effort should be one that covers everyone and every country.