The National occupancy rates increased to 51% for July 2022. This reflects an improvement from 32.1% that was recorded in June 2022 see figure 1 below. According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia, the majority of guests that took up most of the accommodation establishments were from Central Europe, followed by guests originating from German-speaking countries of Germany, and the least number of guests were from the USA accounting for 57%, 31.3%, and 4.29% respectively.
Positive occupancy rates and a growth in tourist arrivals from 23, 338 for June 2022 to 34, 943 recorded in July 2022. This reflects that the recovery of the tourism sector is on the right track. The positive outlook is further augmented by the growth reflected by a rebound in the hotels and restaurants sector by 4.4% during the second quarter of 2022. We expect the tourism sector to maintain a strong growth momentum for the rest of the year. This is reflected by the positive trends in international arrivals and the upturn in demand for accommodation services.
Figure 1: National Occupancy rates vs. HKIA arrivals, Namibia (July 2021- July 2022)
International tourism continues to recover from the Covid-19 crisis at a robust pace from January-June 2022. This has resulted in Namibia recording a total of 114, 731 arrivals in the first six months compared to a total of 21, 779 recorded during the same period last year
On a monthly basis, International arrivals showed an improvement of 2% for June 2022 in relation to May 2022
On annual basis, International arrivals increased significantly to 23338 compared to 3419 recorded during the same period last year. The significant improvement can be attributed to eased travel restrictions across the globe and a pent-up in travelers’ confidence.
The tourism recovery gains momentum as the Covid-19 cases continue on a downward trajectory for Namibia, hence an increase in demand as there is no longer fear from travelers
We anticipate a gradual recovery in the number of arrivals and the entire tourism industry is expected to remain positive throughout 2022, due to the green shots to tourism growth. However, a challenging economic environment coupled with the geopolitical uncertainty of the Russian Federation on Ukraine poses a downside risk to the ongoing recovery of the tourism industry.
On an annual basis, international
arrivals increased to 11888 for January 2022 from 3190 recorded for
January 2021
The adoption of digital health
solutions for safe travels, vaccine rollouts and the introduction of vaccine booster shoots has also led to improvements in the
international arrivals
Total arrivals began to record a
positive growth from the month of July 2021 upto January 2022, this is
augmented by radical decline in the number of Covid-19 cases recorded per
month, which boosted international travelers confidence. See figure 2
below.
Figure 2: HKIA Arrivals Year on Year % growth rates, Namibia (March 2020-Jan 2022)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
A drastic decline in the
number of Covid-19 cases for Namibia will give international travelers confidence to travel and this will lead to an
increase in the number of arrivals in the short to medium term. The vaccine
efficacy, effectiveness of the aggressive vaccine rollout and the booster
shoots, remains key to reduce the number of Covid-19 infections and hence
improve the outlook for travel retail and tourism for the Namibian economy.
Executive summary
International arrivals have been on
a downward trajectory since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. This
has resulted in Namibia recording upto 378 international arrivals in April
2020, the lowest in history.
A decline in the number of arrivals
between the start of the Covid-19 Pandemic until January 2022 was a result
of the travel restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the Covid-19
virus.
Covid-19 cases reached its peak in June
2021 recording a total of 35659 cases, this has led to a drastic decline
in the number of arrivals due to a low travelers confidence to travel to
Namibia. See figure 1 below
Analysis
On an annual basis, international
arrivals increased to 11888 for January 2022 from 3190 recorded for
January 2021
The adoption of digital health
solutions for safe travels, vaccine rollouts and the introduction of vaccine booster shoots has also led to improvements in the
international arrivals
Total arrivals began to record a
positive growth from the month of July 2021 upto January 2022, this is
augmented by radical decline in the number of Covid-19 cases recorded per
month, which boosted international travelers confidence. See figure 2
below.
Figure 2: HKIA Arrivals Year on Year % growth rates, Namibia (March 2020-Jan 2022)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
A drastic decline in the
number of Covid-19 cases for Namibia will give international travelers confidence to travel and this will lead to an
increase in the number of arrivals in the short to medium term. The vaccine
efficacy, effectiveness of the aggressive vaccine rollout and the booster
shoots, remains key to reduce the number of Covid-19 infections and hence
improve the outlook for travel retail and tourism for the Namibian economy.
Hosea Kutako International Airport arrivals increased to 25,453 for April 2022 from 4,549 recorded during the same period last year. On a monthly basis, total arrivals increased by 38%. (See figure 1 below) International arrivals have significantly increased in relation to the year 2020. An increase in the number of arrivals was mainly due to the relaxation of most of the Covid-19 restrictions. As a result, national occupancy rates increased to 36.51 % from 16.37% recorded during the 2020 Covid-19 year. (See figure 2)
A positive number of arrivals indicates that the tourism industry is on the recovery path albeit at a slow pace. However, the number of Covid-19 infections is on an upward trajectory and this may lead to modest travelers confidence as a consequence, the number of international arrivals could decrease in the medium term. The outlook for the tourism sector remains uncertain due to the continuous price hikes in commodities and global political strive.
The
room and bed occupancy rates serve as a proxy for Namibia’s tourism sector.
This indicates the demand for accommodation services in the country. The Covid-19
restrictions and lockdown measures imposed during the year 2020 to contain the
spread of Covid-19 negatively affected
the demand for accommodation services resulting in historically low occupancy
rates for Namibia. Figure 1 below depicts national rooms and beds occupancy
rates pre-Covid-19 and during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Additionally,
in the first quarter of 2022, the statistics indicate that the demand for accommodation
services has improved during the first quarter of 2022. The improvement was
influenced by the relaxation of Covid-19 travel regulations which has created a
more permitting atmosphere for visitors.
Figure 1: Rooms and
beds occupancy rates, Namibia (2019-2022Q1)
Source: H.A.N &
HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
There are green shots on the
horizon for the revival of Namibia’s tourism industry and the demand for
accommodation services for the year 2022. The positive outlook is reflected by
a high demand for accommodation services that has driven GDP growth for the
category of Hotel cafés and restaurants and improvements in the number of
international arrivals during the first 3 months of the year 2022.
Hosea Kutako International Airport arrivals increased to 18 496 for March 2022 from 12 678 recorded during the same period last year. International arrivals improved significantly and were influenced by the reopening of the majority of the borders that were closed to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The outlook remains uncertain, this is due to the continuous surge in fuel prices globally, global political strive, and Covid-19. This will lead to moderate travelers' confidence and as a consequence, the number of international arrivals could take a while before returning to pre-Covid numbers.
International arrivals have been on
a downward trajectory since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. This
has resulted in Namibia recording upto 378 international arrivals in April
2020, the lowest in history.
A decline in the number of arrivals
between the start of the Covid-19 Pandemic until January 2022 was a result
of the travel restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the Covid-19
virus.
Covid-19 cases reached its peak in June
2021 recording a total of 35659 cases, this has led to a drastic decline
in the number of arrivals due to a low travelers confidence to travel to
Namibia. See figure 1 below
Analysis
On an annual basis, international
arrivals increased to 11888 for January 2022 from 3190 recorded for
January 2021
The adoption of digital health
solutions for safe travels, vaccine rollouts and the introduction of vaccine booster shoots has also led to improvements in the
international arrivals
Total arrivals began to record a
positive growth from the month of July 2021 upto January 2022, this is
augmented by radical decline in the number of Covid-19 cases recorded per
month, which boosted international travelers confidence. See figure 2
below.
Figure 2: HKIA Arrivals Year on Year % growth rates, Namibia (March 2020-Jan 2022)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
A drastic decline in the
number of Covid-19 cases for Namibia will give international travelers confidence to travel and this will lead to an
increase in the number of arrivals in the short to medium term. The vaccine
efficacy, effectiveness of the aggressive vaccine rollout and the booster
shoots, remains key to reduce the number of Covid-19 infections and hence
improve the outlook for travel retail and tourism for the Namibian economy.
The
room and bed occupancy rates serves as a proxy to Namibia’s tourism sector.
This indicates the demand for the hospitality sector in the country. The Covid-19
restrictions and lockdown measures imposed during the year 2020 to contain the
spread of Covid-19 has negatively affected the demand for accomondation
services for Namibia. Figure 1 below shows the rooms and beds occupancy rates for
Namibia pre-Covid-19 and during Covid-19.
Additionally, for the first three quarters of 2021 the statistics indicates that the demand for accomomodation services is slowly returning and starting to pick up. This came as a result of the relaxation of the majority of the Covid-19 restrictions. See figure 2 below
Figure 1: Rooms and beds occupancy rates, Namibia (2017-2020)
Source: HAN & HEI REASEARCH
Figure 2: Rooms and
beds occupancy rates, Namibia (2021)
Source: HAN & HEI REASEARCH
Outlook
There are green shots on the
horizon for the revival of Namibia’s tourism industry and the demand for
accommodation services in the remaining months of 2021. This could be
attributed to aggressive vaccine rollouts which will result into a decline in
the number of Covid-19 infections. This will lead to Namibia remaining as
low-risk and an ideal travel destination. The upcoming festive season could
also drive up the demand for travel retail and hospitality sector for Namibia.
International arrivals
for August 2021 declined to 5 113 from 45 835 recorded for August 2019
pre-covid-19
The decline in the
number of arrivals was a result of travel restrictions imposed to curb the
spread of Covid-19
On a 12 month
cumulative basis between August 2019 to August 2020, Namibia recorded a total
of 277 971 arrivals compared to 53 073 recorded for the period of August 2020
to August 2021. See figure 1
Analysis
On an annual basis, the number of arrivals for Namibia declined from
-9.03% for August 2019 to -98.60% for August 2020 as a consequence of a
ban on international travels
In actual numbers international arrivals increased to 5 113 for
August 2021 from 1109 recorded for August 2020. This came as a result of
the ease of Covid-19 restrictions and the global vaccination rollouts. See
figure 2
The adoption of digital health solutions for safe travel has also led
to improvements in the international arrivals
Figure 1: Hosea Kutako International Monthly Arrivals
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: Hosea Kutako International Airport Arrivals Year on Year % changes
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
Outlook
The effectiveness of the aggressive vaccine rollout, and the lifting of
Covid-19 travel restrictions will lead to a further increase in the number of
international arrivals for Namibia in the short to medium term. This will
improve the outlook for travel retail and tourism for the Namibian economy.
