Category: Retail

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales increased to 1045 vehicles for November 2022 from vehicles sold in October 2022. This reflects a 4.9% monthly increment. See figure 1.
• An increase in new vehicle sales was mainly driven by high sales of passenger vehicles sales and medium commercial vehicles
• Passenger vehicles sales increased by 13.9% when compared to October 2022
• New heavy commercial vehicles declined by 33.3% for November 2022
• A total of 11459 vehicles were sold between November 2021 and November 2022 an improvement from 10078 vehicles sold between November 2020 and November 2021

Analysis

• On an annual basis new vehicle sales increased by 38.9%, (See figure 2). This could be influenced by an increase in demand as consumer confidence improves significantly
• Passenger vehicle sales increased to 531 from 466. This could be influenced by improvements in income levels that consequently resulted in a better credit score. This has enabled consumers to take up credit to purchase new vehicles
• Heavy commercial vehicle sales declined to 8 from 12 vehicles sold for October 2022. This could have been attributed to poor performance in commercial activities

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (November 2021 – November 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (November 2021- November 2022), Namibia

Outlook

• The current monetary policy tightening negatively influences the demand for credit for both households and businesses. This determines the overall confidence to borrow money to purchase new vehicles in the short to medium term. We expect new vehicle sales for December to drop.

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales declined to 996 vehicles for October 2022 from 1018 vehicles sold in September 2022. See figure 1.
• The drop in new vehicle sales for October  2022 was mainly driven by low sales of passenger vehicles  
• New passenger vehicle sales declined by 8% in relation to the vehicles sold in September  2022
• New light commercial vehicle sales increased by 12% when compared to vehicles sold in September 2022
• A total of 11128 vehicles were sold between October 2021 and October 2022 an improvement from 9885 vehicles sold between October 2020 and October 2021

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales increased by 39.5%, (See figure 2). This came as a result of improved consumer and business confidence
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased to 460 from 448 vehicles sold in September 2022. This could have been influenced by improved commercial activities.
• Passenger vehicle sales decreased to 466 from 505. The decline could have been driven by the lack of consumer confidence to take up credit to purchase new vehicles due to the high cost of borrowing. The high cost of borrowing impedes consumers’ and businesses’ confidence to take up loans to purchase new vehicles.
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales increased to 33 from 28  vehicles sold in September 2022 as a consequence of the high demand for heavy goods transportation services

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (October 2021 – October 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year Vehicle sales growth (October 2021- October 2022), Namibia

Outlook

• The current monetary policy tightening continues to negatively influence the demand for credit for both households and businesses, hence businesses and consumers are likely to remain cautious in making credit decisions to buy new vehicles in the short to medium term.
• We expect new vehicle sales for November 2022 to decline further.

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales declined to 1018 vehicles for September 2022 from 1051 vehicles sold in August 2022. See figure 1.
• The drop in new vehicle sales for September  2022 was mainly driven by low sales of light commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles
• New light commercial vehicle sales declined by 4% in relation to vehicles sold in August 2022
• Passenger vehicles sales declined by 3% when compared to August 2022
• A total of 10899 vehicles were sold between September 2021 and September 2022 an improvement from 10045 vehicles sold between September 2020 and September 2021

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales increased by 32.7% (See figure 2). This could have been influenced by an upturn in demand as consumer confidence is slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 448 from 465 vehicles in September 2022. This could have been attributed to poor performance in light commercial activities
• Passenger vehicle sales decreased to 505 from 519. The decline could have resulted from a lack of consumer confidence to take up credit to purchase new vehicles due to the high cost of borrowing
• Extra heavy commercial vehicle sales declined to 28 from 33  vehicles sold in August 2022 as a consequence of low demand for heavy transportation services

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (September 2021 – September 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year-on-Year, Vehicle sales growth (July 2021- July 2022), Namibia

Outlook

• The current monetary policy tightening has negatively influenced the demand for credit for both households and businesses. With banks having turned cautious over their vehicle financing, we expect new vehicle sales momentum for October 2022 to drop further.

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales increased to 1051 vehicles for August 2022 from 677 vehicles sold in July 2022. See figure 1.
• An increase  in new vehicle sales for August  2022 was mainly driven by high sales of light commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and extra heavy vehicles
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased by 74% in relation to July 2022.
• Passenger vehicle sales increased by 35% when compared to July 2022.
• New extra vehicles sold increased from 9  to 33 vehicles sold in July 2022
• A total 10645 of vehicles were sold between August 2021 and August 2022

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales increased by 37.5%, (See figure 2). This is could be influenced an upturn in demand as businesses and consumer confidence returns
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased to 465 from 266 vehicles sold in July 2022. This could have resulted from a rebound in light commercial activities especially improved sales in the travel and retail sectors at the back of the overall recovery  in the sectors
• Passenger vehicle sales increased from 382 to 519 recorded in August 2022. This could be influenced by an improvement in income levels which resulted in improved consumers’ confidence
• Extra heavy vehicle sales increased to 33 from 9 vehicles sold in July 2022. This could be attributed to a higher demand for heavy good transportation services as the country remains heavily reliant on road freight

Outlook

• We project new vehicle sales momentum for August 2022 to continue on a modest upward trend

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (August 2021 – August 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (August 2021- August 2022), Namibia

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales declined to 677 vehicles for July 2022 from 872 vehicles sold in June 2022. See figure 1.
• A decline in new vehicle sales for July  2022 was mainly driven by low sales of extra heavy vehicles, heavy commercial vehicles, and light commercial vehicles
• Extra heavy vehicle sales declined by 76% when compared to June 2022
• Heavy commercial vehicle sales declined by 50% in relation to June 2022
• New light  commercial vehicle sales declined by 29% when compared to June 2022
• A total 10394 of vehicles were sold between July 2021 and July 2022

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales declined by 15.4%, (See figure 2). This is could be influenced an increase in interest rates which resulted in  low demand for credit to buy new vehicles
• Extra heavy vehicle sales declined to 9 from 37 vehicles sold in June 2022
• Heavy commercial vehicle sales declined to 6 from 12 vehicles sold in June 2022
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 266 from 376 vehicles sold in June 2022. This could have resulted from poor performance in commercial operations.

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (July 2021 – July 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (July 2021- July 2022), Namibia

Outlook

• The current interest rate hike cycle influences the demand for credit for both households and businesses. This speaks to the overall affordability of credit to purchase new vehicles and the tightening of overall general spending in the market. We project new vehicle sales momentum for August 2022 to decline further.

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales increased to 872 vehicles for June 2022 from 767 vehicles sold in May 2022. See figure 1.
• An increase in new vehicle sales for June 2022 was mainly driven by high sales of  medium commercial vehicles and  light commercial vehicles
• Medium commercial vehicle sales increased by 44% in relation to May 2022
• New light  commercial vehicle sales increased by 22% when compared to May 2022
• Passenger vehicle sales declined by 5% in relation to May 2022
• A total of 5186 vehicles were sold during the first half of the year 2022.

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales increased by 3.4%, (See figure 2). This is could be influenced by improvements in consumer confidence albeit at a slow pace
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased by 376 from 309 recorded in May 2022
• Medium commercial vehicle sales increased to 13 vehicles from 9 vehicles that were sold in May 2022. This could be attributed to an upturn in  commercial operations
• Extra heavy vehicle sales increased to 37 from 34 vehicles sold in May 2022. This could be influenced by an increase in demand for heavy goods and transportation services. This reflects the continuous dependence of the Namibian economy on road freight.  

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (June 2021 – June 2022), Namibia

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (June 2021- June 2022), Namibia

Outlook

• We project that new vehicle sales for July 2022 will continue on a modest upward trend.

The manufacturing of beverages category consists of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. This includes a range of soft beverages (water, juices), a range of non-alcoholic beverages (coffee, tea), and alcoholic beverages (beers, ciders). Although Namibia Breweries Limited (NBL) produces a variety of alcoholic beverages, beer is the most significant beverage comprising 95.2% of total volumes. According to the Namibia Breweries Limited (NBL) annual report 2021, the company exports products to 18 countries including South Africa and its workforce consisted of about 796 employees. The production of beverages contributed around 9.5% to manufacturing on average between 2010 and 2020 (See figure 1). The lowest production of beverages specifically beer was recorded in April and May 2020 as a result of a ban on alcohol as a means to curb the spread of Covid-19. The production picked up from October reaching its highest in December 2020 owing to the festive season (See figure 2)

Namibia has accumulatively imported products of this category worth N$ 2.5 billion while exports were valued at N$ 1.9 billion since May 2021. The highest import figure of N$ 270 million was recorded in November 2021 while the lowest figure of N$ 156 million was registered in July 2021. The country imported beverages products amounting to N$ 185 million during May 2022 while the exported products value amounted to N$ 119 million. The products imported comprised wine accounting for 22% of the total imports, followed by whiskies with 12%, and waters, mineral waters, and aerated waters accounting for 7%. These products were imported from countries such as Serbia (87.4%), followed by Sweden (5.3%), France (4.8%), and Tanzania (0.7%). The products exported comprised beer which accounted for 78% of the total exports, followed by whiskies with 11%, and other fermented beverages accounting for 1.1%. The top export destination for beverages was South Africa (94.0%) followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (1.5%), Zimbabwe (1.2%), and Zambia (0.9%) (See figure 3).

Figure 1: Beverages % contribution to the Manufacturing Sector (2010 – 2020)

Figure 2: Beverages Production (Jan 2020 – May 2022)

Figure 3: Imports and Exports of Beverages products (N$) Value (May 2021 – May 2022)

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales declined to 767 vehicles for May 2022 from 905 vehicles sold in April 2022. See figure 1.
• A decline in new vehicle sales for May 2022 was mainly driven by low sales of light commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and medium commercial vehicle sales
• New Light  commercial vehicle sales declined 21% when compared to April 2022
• Passenger vehicle sales declined by 13% in relation to April 2022
• Extra-heavy commercial vehicles increased by 70%   when compared to the previous month.
• A total of 4314 vehicles were sold during the first 5 months of the year 2022.

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales declined to 9.4% from 46.6% recorded in April 2021, (See figure 2). This is could be influenced by an increase in the cost of borrowing which resulted in low consumers’ confidence to purchase new vehicles.
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 309 from 392 recorded in April 2022 due to subdued commercial activities
• The number of new passenger vehicles sold for May 2022 declined to 402 from 466 vehicles sold in April 2022. This was due to low demand to take up loans to buy new vehicles
• Extra-heavy vehicle sales increased to 34 from 20 vehicles sold in April 2022. This was influenced by the rising demand for heavy goods and transportation services. This reflects the continuous dependence of the Namibian economy on road freight.  

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (May 2021 – May 2022), Namibia

Source:Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (May 2021- May 2022), Namibia

Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH

Outlook

We project that new vehicle sales for June 2022 will remain under pressure. This could be influenced by the foreseen increase in the interest rate in the next MPC meeting and result in low credit uptake to purchase new vehicles.

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales increased to 1054 vehicles for March 2022 from 883 vehicles sold in February 2022. See figure 1.
• An increase in new vehicles sales for February 2022 was mainly driven by high sales of light commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and extra heavy  vehicles
• New Light  commercial vehicle sales increased by 27% in relation to February 2022
• Passenger vehicle sales increased by 21% in relation to February 2022
• Extra-heavy commercial vehicles declined by 37% in relation to  February 2022
• A total of 2642 new vehicles were sold during the first three months of  the year 2022

Analysis

• On an annual basis, new vehicle sales recorded a growth of 4.15% from the 2.94% growth rate recorded in March 2021, (See figure 2). This came as a result of the high demand for new vehicles augmented by high consumers’ confidence.
• Light commercial vehicle sales increased to 467 from 366 recorded for February 2022. This was due to expansion in light commercial operations for the country
• The number of new passenger vehicles sold for March 2022 increased to 529 from 439 vehicles sold in February 2022. This was influenced by the upturn in demand and improvements in individuals' and businesses' confidence  
• Extra-heavy vehicle sales declined to 31 from 49 from vehicles sold in February 2022. This was influenced by subdued activities for extra heavy commercial operations.

Outlook

• The overall consumer confidence is on the recovery path although at a very slow pace. This is due to the global economic challenges that pose a risk to economic activities and to the entire transport sector.
• We project that new vehicle sales will decline in the medium term. This is exacerbated by the recent increase in the Repo rate, which will in turn result in a decline in demand to take up credit to purchase new vehicles. 

Figure 1: Monthly Vehicle Sales (March 2021 – March 2022), Namibia

Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (March 2021-March 2022), Namibia

Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH

Executive summary

• New vehicle sales declined to 705 vehicles for January 2022 from 734 vehicles sold in December 2021. See figure 1.
• A decline in  new vehicles sales for January 2022 was mainly driven by low  sales of light commercial vehicles and extra-heavy  vehicles
• New Light  commercial vehicle sales declined by 15% when compared to December 2021
• Extra-heavy commercial vehicles sales declined by 54% in relation to the previous month
• Passenger vehicle sales increased by 11% when compared to sales made in December 2021

Analysis

• On an annual basis new vehicle sales recorded a growth of 7.18% from (-17.30%), (See figure 2). This was influenced by improvements in consumers’ confidence
• Light commercial vehicle sales declined to 266 from 315 recorded in December 2021. This came as a result of subdued commercial activities at the back of the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on consumers' and businesses' spending patterns.
• The number of new passenger vehicles sold for January 2022 increased to 404 from 362 vehicles sold in December 2021. This was due to minimal improvements in income levels
• Extra-heavy vehicle sales declined to 15 from 33 vehicles sold in December 2021.  This was influenced by low demand for heavy goods transportation services as a result of logistical disruptions

Outlook

• We project that new vehicle sales for February 2022 will increase albeit at a very slow pace

Figure 1: Monthly vehicle sales (January 2021-January 2022)

Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: Year on Year, Vehicle sales growth (January 2021-January 2022), Namibia

Source: Lightstone (Pty) Ltd & HEI RESEARCH