Category: Inflation

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for February 2022 increased to (4.5%), up from (2.7%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment, and maintenance of the house categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation declined by 0.2% this was influenced by health as demand for outpatient services, medical, dental, and paramedical decreased

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (0.2%) to (13.2%). This was mainly influenced by the operation of personal transport equipment (fuel costs)
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.8%) to (9.0%). This was driven by an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.5%) to (8.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance

Outlook

• We anticipate that the annual inflation rate for March 2022 will increase. This will be driven by the transport category due to an increase in fuel prices as announced by the Ministry of Mines and Energy
• Additionally, sin tax  price adjustments will also contribute to a rise in overall inflation

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for January 2022 increased to (4.6%), up from (2.7%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment and maintenance of the house, clothing, and footwear, and education categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 1.1% in January 2022 when compared to 0.4% in December 2021
• The main contributors to the monthly inflation rate recorded in January 2022 were mainly hotels, cafes, and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment and maintenance of the house, and education

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.8%) to (13.5%). This was mainly influenced by high fuel prices and transport fares
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (1.2%) to (9.0%). This was driven by an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (4.2%) to (8.9%) as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased from (-5.6%) to (-1.4%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of footwear, adult footwear, and dry cleaning, repair, and hire clothing
• The annual inflation rate for education increased from (1.4%) to (3.3%) due to an increase in the costs of pre-primary education, secondary and tertiary education

Outlook

• The transport category continues to be the main driver of inflation for Namibia. We anticipate that the annual inflation rate for February 2022 will increase augmented by the inflationary global environment.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for December 2021 increased to (4.5%), up from (2.4%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, hotels, cafes and restaurants, miscellaneous goods and services categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 0.4% in December 2021 when compared to 0.6% in November 2021
• The main contributors to the monthly inflation rate recorded in December 2021 were mainly transport, alcoholic and beverage tobacco, and hotels, cafes, and restaurants
• Overall, the average annual inflation rate for the year 2021 rose by 3.6% when compared to 2.2% recorded for the year 2020, driven mainly by the transport inflation

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-1.3%) to (14.3%). This was mainly influenced by high prices for vehicle-related goods (car parts and high fuel prices) which led to an increase in transport fares
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased from (-6.0%) to (-2.1%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of footwear, adult footwear, and dry cleaning, repair, and hire clothing
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (0.1%) to (1.9%) due to an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.6%) to (6.9%). This was driven by a high demand  for financial services

Outlook

• The persisting supply chain troubles on the emergence of the omicron variant virus especially in the advanced economies threaten to prolong the increase in prices of goods and services into 2022.
• The general inflation will remain elevated in the short to medium term which could bring an end to the accommodative monetary policy in the global economy.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Executive summary

• The annual Inflation rate for Namibia increased to 4.1% from 2.2% recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were the categories of transport, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, miscellaneous goods and services, health, furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, the inflation rate increased by 0.5%
• The main drivers of an increase in the monthly inflation rate were observed in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and transport categories

Analysis

• Transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-1.2%) to (11.9%). This was mainly influenced by high prices of fuel (petrol and diesel)
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.0%) to (6.9%). This was driven by a high demand  for financial services
• The annual inflation rate for the health category increased from (2.8%) to (3.9%) due to an increase in the demand for outpatient, medical, dental, and paramedical services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.4%) to (4.4%). This came as a result of an increase in the price levels of furniture and furnishings

Outlook

• The supply chain bottlenecks is the main factor that has led to a recent rise in the cost of living globally and Namibia is no exception.
• We anticipate that inflation will continue to elevate in the short to medium term with the cost-push factors being the key drivers of inflation.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The annual Inflation rate for Namibia continues to rise. This is attributed to the bottlenecks throughout the supply chain caused by the impact of theCovid-19 pandemic. See figure 1
• The annual inflation rate for October 2021 increased to (3.6%), up from (2.3%) recorded for the same period last year
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, miscellaneous goods and services, health and hotels, cafes and restaurants categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation rate increased by 0.1%
• The main drivers of an increase in the monthly inflation rate was observed in the transport, food and non-alcoholic beverages categories

Analysis

• Transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-1.2%) to (10.7%). This was mainly influenced by high demand for vehicle related goods (bicycles and motor cars) and the high prices of petrol and diesel
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased from (-6.1%) to (-1.9%). This was influenced by a high price levels of clothing materials and adult footwear
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.1%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.0%) to (5.3%). This came as a result of an increase in the price levels of furniture, furnishings, decorations, carpets, floor coverings, and repairs
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.4%) to (6.6%). This was driven by a high demand  for financial services
• The annual inflation rate for the health category increased from (2.5%) to (3.1%) due to an increase in the demand for outpatient, medical, dental, and paramedical services.

Outlook

• We anticipate that inflation will remain elevated in the short to medium term and the cost-push factors will remain the key driver of inflation.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

By Turimuye Uandara                     

Executive summary

• Inflation has become a global phenomenon. The upward pressure on inflation in the global economy is on the back of rising commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. See figure 1
• Additionally, aggressive vaccine rollouts has led to divergent economic recovery in some countries which has led to an upturn in demand and this resulted in an increase in prices of goods and services
• The annual inflation rate for September 2021 for Namibia increased to (3.5%), up from (2.4%) recorded for September 2020
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, miscellaneous goods and services and health categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation rate increased by 0.1%
• The main drivers of an increase in the monthly inflation rate was observed in the miscellaneous goods and services, and transport categories

Analysis

• Transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (1.3%) to (7.5%). This was mainly influenced by high prices for vehicle related goods (bicycles, motor cars) and the high prices of fuel
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.3%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (2.7%) to (4.8%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of furniture, furnishings, decorations, carpets, floor coverings, and repairs
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.1%) to (6.6%). This was driven by an increase in the demand for financial services
• The annual inflation rate for the health category increased from (2.7%) to (3.5%) due to an increase in the demand for outpatient, medical, dental, and paramedical services

Outlook

• We anticipate that inflation will remain elevated in the short to medium term. This could be ascribed to high oil prices, cost of housing, water and adjusted electricity tariffs.

Figure 1:Annual inflation rate

Figure 1: Namibia and selected Economies Annual Inflation for September 2021

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

[1] The Annual Inflation rate used for Botswana and South Africa is for August 2021 and for New Zealand is for June 2021.

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for August  2021 increased to 3.4%  from 2.4% recorded for August 2020. See figure 1.
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and health categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis the inflation rate declined by 0.6%. See figure 1
• The main drivers of the decline in the monthly inflation rate was observed in the transport category due to the decline in the cost of public transport services

Analysis

• Transport category recorded a huge  increase in the  annual inflation rate from (1.2%) to (6.2%). This was mainly influenced by high costs of operation of personal transport equipment and a slight increase in demand for vehicles
• The annual inflation rate for hotels, cafes, and restaurants increased  from (-0.9%) to (2.9%) due to the high demand for accommodation services at the back of the ease of Covid-19 restrictions
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from (-1.5%) to (1.6%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwelling and an increase in the rental payments for dwelling both owners and renters
• The annual inflation rate for the health category increased from (2.8%) to (3.5%)  due to an increase in the demand for outpatient, medical, dental and paramedical services due to covid-19
• The annual inflation rate for the clothing and footwear category increased from (-5.1%) to (-2.7%). This was a result of a high demand for clothing and footwear

Outlook

• We project that the annual inflation rate for September 2021 will remain within the 3 and 4% range. The transport and food categories will remain elevated due to high cost-push factors

Figure1: Annual inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %

By Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for July  2021 increased to 4.0% up  from 2.1% recorded for July 2020. See Figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the houses, housing, water ,electricity, gas and other fuels and clothing and footwear. See figure 2
• The category of clothing and footwear  recorded a deflation for July 2021

Analysis

• Transport category recorded a huge  increase in the  annual inflation rate from (-1.2%) to (10.6%), this was mainly influenced by high costs of operation of personal transport equipment and a high input cost for vehicles
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (2.3%) to (5.8%), this was influenced by an increase in the prices of  household textiles, carpets and other floor coverings and glassware, tableware and household utensils
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from (-1.5%) to (1.2%), this was due to an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• The  annual inflation rate for  the clothing and footwear category declined  from (-4.3%) to (-3.0%), this was influenced by an upturn in demand for clothing and footwear
• The annual inflation rate for hotels, cafes, and restaurants increased  from (0.8%) to (1.1%), this was due to the ease of Covid-19 restrictions
• The annual inflation rate for recreation and culture declined from (6.5%) to (2.1%), this was influenced by high prices of  audio-visual, photographic and data processing equipment including repairs and a lack of demand for holiday packages

Outlook

• We project that the annual inflation rate  for August 2021 will increase due to high cost-push factors with added pressure on the supply side by the vaccine roll-out. In particular, prices for vehicle related input,  personal transport equipment and food products will remain elevated for the time being as supply chains (both domestically and abroad) converge back to pre-pandemic conditions

Figure1: Annual inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %

                    

Report by Monika Kristof

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for June 2021 shot up to 4.1% up  from 2.1 % recorded for June    2020. See Figure 1.
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house ,food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water ,electricity, gas and other fuels and miscellaneous good and services. See figure 2
• The category of clothing and footwear  recorded a deflation for June 2021 which is an indication of huge pressure on the retail industry.

Analysis

• Transport category recorded a huge  increase in the  annual inflation rate from (-0.8%) to (9.6%), this was mainly influenced by high costs of operation of personal transport equipment and a cost push increase for vehicles due to supply disruptions.
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (2.8%) to (5.6%), this was influenced by an increase in the prices of  household textiles, carpets and other floor coverings.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages annual inflation rate increased from (4.7%) to (7.3%), this was influenced by an increase the prices of meat, oils and fats due to cost push inflation.
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from (-0.6%) to (1.3%), this was due to an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwelling.
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (6.3%) to (6.4), this was influenced by the high demand for financial services.
• The annual inflation rate for hotels, cafes, and restaurants declined from (0.9%) to (0.4%), this was due to a lack of demand for accommodation services and Covid-19 restrictions.

Outlook

• We anticipate an increase in the annual inflation rate for July 2021, due to the heightened supply chain disruptions which will be imported by our biggest trading partner, South Africa.

Figure1: Annual inflation rate  

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for May 2021 increased  to 3.8% from 2.1 % recorded for May 2020. See Figure 1.
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water ,electricity, gas and other fuels, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, furnishings  household equipment and routine  maintenance of the house, health and miscellaneous good and services. See figure 2
• The category of clothing and footwear  recorded a deflation for the 12-month period between May 2020 and May 2021.

Analysis

• Transport category recorded an increase in the  annual inflation rate from (-0.1%) to (7.3%), this was mainly influenced by high cost of operation of personal transport equipment and  high demand for vehicles
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages annual inflation rate increased from (4.7%) to (6.6%),this was influenced by the rise in food and  meat prices.
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from (-0.6%) to (1.3%),this was due to an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwelling.
• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate  from (2.2%) to (3.5%),this was influenced by the high demand for  tobacco and alcoholic beverages
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.7%) to (4.5%) ,this was influenced by an increase in the prices of  carpets and other floor coverings and household textiles
• The  annual inflation rate for  the health category increased   from (3.0%) to (3.7%),this is due to an increase in demand for health services and medical equipment due to Covid 19
• The annual inflation rate for hotels, cafes, and restaurants declined from (0.8.%) to (0.5%), this was due to a lack of demand for accommodation services.

Outlook

• We anticipate the annual inflation rate for June 2021 to hover below 4% as demand remains subdued due to the divergent recoveries in the respective economies.

Figure 1: Annual inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %