Category: Inflation

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate increased to 6.8% for July 2022 from 4.0% recorded during the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.8%
• An increase in the monthly inflation rate was mainly influenced by the price levels of fruits specifically avocadoes

Analysis

• The annual inflation rate for the transport category increased to 20.9% from 10.6% recorded during the same period last year. This was mainly influenced by an increase in the prices of fuel and driving lessons, licenses, and tests
• An increase in the annual inflation rate for hotels, cafes, and restaurants from 1.0% to 9.8% was driven by a high uptake for accommodation services as the tourism sector shows positive sentiments
• Clothing and footwear recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 0.3% from -3.0%. This came as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of dry-cleaning services and repair of footwear.
• The annual inflation rate for the recreation and culture category increased from 2.1% to 5.1% due to the high demand for package holidays influenced by the  July school holiday
• The annual inflation rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased to 5.4% from 2.5%. This was influenced by an increase in the price levels of white spirits and beer

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Sub-Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Outlook

• Higher energy and food prices and the rebalancing of demand back toward the sectors that were negatively impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic have driven up inflation. Persistently high inflation will compel central banks to raise interest rates for price stability, thereby suppressing spending patterns.
• A recent sharp decline in oil prices as a result of a rebound in the international crude oil market which increased crude oil production by major oil producers. This implies that national fuel prices are expected to decline and slow the overall inflation much quicker than initial expectations.

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate increased to 6.0% from 4.1% recorded during the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishings, household equipment, routine maintenance of the house, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco.
• The main price hikes were recorded for the subcategories of operation of personal transport equipment, package holidays, and goods and services for household routine maintenance. See figure 2

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 18.6%. This was mainly influenced by an increase in the prices of petrol/diesel and driving lessons, licenses, and tests
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 8.6%. This was driven by a high demand for accommodation services as the tourism sector shows positive developments
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 7.1% as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance
• The annual inflation rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased to 5.8% as a result of an increase in the price levels of white spirits

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Sub-Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Outlook

• The annual inflation rate will remain elevated in the short to medium term due to global uncertainty and the depreciation of the Rand against the USD.

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate increased to 5.4% from 3.8% recorded during the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, clothing and footwear and furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house.
• The main price hikes were recorded for the subcategories of package holidays, public transportation services, and accommodation services. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation declined by 0.2%, this was mainly influenced by a decline in petrol and diesel prices between April and May 2022.

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 9.4%. This was mainly influenced by an increase in the prices of public transportation fares and fuel.
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 8% . This was driven by a high demand for accommodation services
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased by 3.1% as a result of an increase in the price levels of dry cleaning, repair, and hire of clothing
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate of 3%  as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: Sub-Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH

Outlook

• We anticipate that the annual inflation rate will remain elevated in the short to medium term due to continuous external cost-push factors.

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for April 2022 increased to (5.6%) the highest recorded since November 2018 up from (3.9%) recorded in April 2021. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment, maintenance of the house, and education categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 1.4% in April 2022 in relation to 0.5% recorded in March 2022

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (7.5%) to (18.9%). This resulted from an increase in the operation of personal transport equipment (fuel costs)
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.2%) to (9.3%). This was influenced by an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (5.3%) to (7.7%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance
• The annual inflation rate for education increased from (0.8%) to (3.1%) due to an increase in the costs of primary (private) and secondary education

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH

Outlook

Inflation continues to upsurge globally augmented by soaring energy and soft commodities prices. We anticipate that the annual inflation rate for May 2022 to remain elevated in the medium term.

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for March 2022 increased to (4.5%), up from (3.1%) recorded in March 2021. See figure 1
• The annual inflation rate for March 2022 remained at 4.5% in relation to February 2022.
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment, and maintenance of the house categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 0.5% in March 2022 in relation to 0.2% recorded in February 2022

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (2.4%) to (13.8%). This resulted from an increase in the operation of personal transport equipment (fuel costs)
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.2%) to (8.6%). This was influenced by an increase in the demand for accommodation services at the back of eased travel restrictions
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (4.1%) to (8.1%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH 

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Source: NSA & HEI RESEARCH 

Outlook

We anticipate that the annual inflation rate will remain elevated in the medium term driven by soft commodities and transport inflation. We project stabilization factors in inflation to come into play over the long term.

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for February 2022 increased to (4.5%), up from (2.7%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment, and maintenance of the house categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, inflation declined by 0.2% this was influenced by health as demand for outpatient services, medical, dental, and paramedical decreased

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (0.2%) to (13.2%). This was mainly influenced by the operation of personal transport equipment (fuel costs)
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.8%) to (9.0%). This was driven by an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.5%) to (8.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance

Outlook

• We anticipate that the annual inflation rate for March 2022 will increase. This will be driven by the transport category due to an increase in fuel prices as announced by the Ministry of Mines and Energy
• Additionally, sin tax  price adjustments will also contribute to a rise in overall inflation

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for January 2022 increased to (4.6%), up from (2.7%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, hotels, cafes and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment and maintenance of the house, clothing, and footwear, and education categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 1.1% in January 2022 when compared to 0.4% in December 2021
• The main contributors to the monthly inflation rate recorded in January 2022 were mainly hotels, cafes, and restaurants, furnishing, household equipment and maintenance of the house, and education

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-0.8%) to (13.5%). This was mainly influenced by high fuel prices and transport fares
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (1.2%) to (9.0%). This was driven by an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (4.2%) to (8.9%) as a consequence of an increase in the price levels of goods and services for routine household maintenance
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased from (-5.6%) to (-1.4%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of footwear, adult footwear, and dry cleaning, repair, and hire clothing
• The annual inflation rate for education increased from (1.4%) to (3.3%) due to an increase in the costs of pre-primary education, secondary and tertiary education

Outlook

• The transport category continues to be the main driver of inflation for Namibia. We anticipate that the annual inflation rate for February 2022 will increase augmented by the inflationary global environment.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Report by Turimuye Uandara

Executive summary

• The annual inflation rate for December 2021 increased to (4.5%), up from (2.4%) recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were transport, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, hotels, cafes and restaurants, miscellaneous goods and services categories. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, Namibia recorded an inflation rate of 0.4% in December 2021 when compared to 0.6% in November 2021
• The main contributors to the monthly inflation rate recorded in December 2021 were mainly transport, alcoholic and beverage tobacco, and hotels, cafes, and restaurants
• Overall, the average annual inflation rate for the year 2021 rose by 3.6% when compared to 2.2% recorded for the year 2020, driven mainly by the transport inflation

Analysis

• The transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-1.3%) to (14.3%). This was mainly influenced by high prices for vehicle-related goods (car parts and high fuel prices) which led to an increase in transport fares
• The annual inflation rate for clothing and footwear increased from (-6.0%) to (-2.1%) as a result of an increase in the price levels of footwear, adult footwear, and dry cleaning, repair, and hire clothing
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• Hotels, cafes, and restaurants recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (0.1%) to (1.9%) due to an increase in the demand for accommodation services
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.6%) to (6.9%). This was driven by a high demand  for financial services

Outlook

• The persisting supply chain troubles on the emergence of the omicron variant virus especially in the advanced economies threaten to prolong the increase in prices of goods and services into 2022.
• The general inflation will remain elevated in the short to medium term which could bring an end to the accommodative monetary policy in the global economy.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia

Executive summary

• The annual Inflation rate for Namibia increased to 4.1% from 2.2% recorded for the same period last year. See figure 1
• The main drivers of an increase in the annual inflation rate were the categories of transport, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, miscellaneous goods and services, health, furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house. See figure 2
• On a monthly basis, the inflation rate increased by 0.5%
• The main drivers of an increase in the monthly inflation rate were observed in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and transport categories

Analysis

• Transport category recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (-1.2%) to (11.9%). This was mainly influenced by high prices of fuel (petrol and diesel)
• The annual inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased from (-1.3%) to (1.2%) as a consequence of an increase in the costs of regular maintenance and repair of dwellings
• The annual inflation rate for miscellaneous goods and services increased from (5.0%) to (6.9%). This was driven by a high demand  for financial services
• The annual inflation rate for the health category increased from (2.8%) to (3.9%) due to an increase in the demand for outpatient, medical, dental, and paramedical services
• Furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance of the house recorded an increase in the annual inflation rate from (3.4%) to (4.4%). This came as a result of an increase in the price levels of furniture and furnishings

Outlook

• The supply chain bottlenecks is the main factor that has led to a recent rise in the cost of living globally and Namibia is no exception.
• We anticipate that inflation will continue to elevate in the short to medium term with the cost-push factors being the key drivers of inflation.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation rate

Figure 2: Categorical analysis Year on Year %, Namibia