Category: Health

1. Executive Summary

In February 2024, the national occupancy rates in Namibia were reported at 36.3%, marking a slight decrease from the 36.8% recorded in January 2024. However, this rate signifies an annual increase from the 33.1% observed in February 2023. When compared to pre-pandemic levels, which stood at 40.1%, it's evident that the national occupancy rates have not yet fully recovered, indicating that the tourism sector is still on a recovery path.

2. Detailed Analysis

During the month under review, the central region of Namibia recorded the highest occupancy rate at 53.5%. This was followed by the coastal region at 40.5%, while the northern region reported the lowest rate of 31.0%. The high occupancy rates in the central region were primarily driven by an increase in rooms sold for business purposes, suggesting a strong demand for business activities in the country. This could be a positive economic indicator, as it implies that businesses are thriving and attracting customers.

According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia, German-speaking guests accounted for a significant 40.9% of occupancy in establishments in February 2024. This figure surpasses the 40% level and is notably higher than the levels recorded in 2019. This trend underscores the positive impact of direct flights between Windhoek and Frankfurt on the tourism market.

However, the demand for accommodation services by the domestic market slightly declined to 23.1% in February 2024, from 24.9% in January 2024. The demand for accommodation was primarily driven by leisure activities, accounting for 89.9% of the total demand. Business and conference activities accounted for 4.9% and 5.2% respectively.

3. Outlook

In celebration of Independence Day, Namibia Wildlife Resorts (NWR) announced a 60% discount on accommodations at all its locations across the country for March 2024. With these enticing offers, we foresee a boost in domestic tourism activities, which we believe will help maintain the positive momentum of the overall tourism sector in March 2024.

Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (February 2023-February 2024)  

Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH

1. Analysis

The national occupancy rates increased to 60.98% for July 2023 from 51.18% recorded in June 2023 (Figure 1). This translated into a 10.3% monthly increase. The monthly increase could be primarily attributed to July being Namibia's peak tourism season, characterized by ideal weather conditions and a heightened influx of travelers.   Breaking down the regional data, the central part of the country recorded the highest occupancy rate of 62.69% for July 2023, followed by the northern part of the country recording 62.54%. The Southern part recorded the lowest occupancy rate of 58.86%.

According to the Hospitality Association of Namibia, the average room occupancy of 60.98% in July 2023 outperformed the July 2019 occupancy by over one percent and is almost 10% higher than the levels of last year (Figure 2).

Namibia’s occupancy rates continue to be driven by leisure activity travelers. During the month under review, occupancy rates for leisure activities made up 93.65% of the national occupancy rates, an increase from the 80.39% recorded for June 2023. This could be driven by low prices for package holidays between June and July 2023 (NSA, NCPI July 2023). Additionally, the business category accounted for only 5.67% of national occupancy for July 2023, a decline of 17.33% that was recorded in June 2023, implying subdued tourism business activities.

The domestic market accounted for only 22.1% of national occupancy during the month under review, a decline from 30.2% recorded in June 2023. The remaining percentage is for international tourists, with a high demand for occupancy from Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, accounting for 28.97% of international occupancy demand. This implies that locals are limited in spending on accommodation services.

We anticipate that the tourism sector will maintain its favorable trajectory in the short to medium term. To maintain and capitalize on this positive trend, stakeholders in the tourism industry should focus on providing excellent visitor experiences, promoting responsible tourism practices, and adapting to changing consumer preferences and travel trends. Additionally, diversifying the tourism product and expanding source markets can help ensure a robust and resilient tourism sector in the long run.

Figure 1: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (July 2022- July 2023)

Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 2: National Occupancy Rates, Namibia (July 2019, July 2022 & July 2023)

Source: H.A.N & HEI RESEARCH

Figure 1 : COVID-19 situation  Namibia, Weekly % change

Figure 2: Weekly Covid-19 cases per region

Namibia  recorded a total of 8932 Covid-19 cases in the past 7 days. Erongo region reported the highest number of Covid-19 cases during the week under review ,reporting a total of 1423 cases,  followed by Khomas region with 1307 cases in 7 days. Kavango West reported the least number of cases ,reporting 98 cases in 7 days. See figure 2 below.

The number of Covid-19 cases reported  declined by 9% when compared to the previous week. On average a total of 1276 Covid-19 cases were reported per day for the past 7 days. Additionally, a total of 456 Covid-19 deaths were reported in the past 7 days, which translates to 114 deaths reported on average per day. Covid-19 deaths reported increased significantly by 48% when compared to the previous week. During the past 7 days 5149 people recovered from Covid-19 with the recovery rate of 1287 people on average per day, which is 35 %  lower than the  recovery rate for the previous week. See figure 1  below

Figure 1 : COVID-19 SITUATION  FOR NAMIBIA FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS(7 July 2021-13 July 2021)

Figure 2: Weekly Covid-19 cases per region(7 July 2021-13 July 2021)

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is buckling under a third wave of COVID-19 infections that threatens to be even more brutal than the two that came before. This is another indication of the unhealthy divergence in the global economy. There is a clear path for countries with good access to vaccines, where strong recoveries are unfolding, while other countries are still waiting for the vaccines and at risk of falling further behind. Figure 1 below indicates the vaccination speed since November 2020 until May 2021 for advanced and developing economies.

Figure 1: Vaccination Rate (doses administered per 100 population)

Perspective

The growth of infections in sub-Saharan Africa is now the fastest in the world see figure 2 below, with an explosive trajectory that is outpacing the record set in the second wave. The latest (delta) variant—reportedly 60 percent more transmissible than earlier variants—has been detected in 14 countries.

Figure 2: Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Namibia, new cases reached the previous January peak within two weeks, and set new records in the following two weeks later. It is also becoming clearer that by the time a new surge is identified, it may already be too late.

There appears to be a real crisis emerging with the near-term future of the continent will be one of repeated waves of infection. This will lead to an ever-increasing toll on the lives and livelihoods of the region’s most vulnerable, while negatively impacting investment, productivity, and growth.

Outlook

The reality is that the longer the pandemic is left to ravage Sub-Sahara, the more likely it is that ever more dangerous variants of the disease will emerge. Vaccination is not simply an issue of local lives and livelihoods, but carries the value of a global public good. The objective is that the most durable vaccine effort should be one that covers everyone and every country.