Category: Agriculture

Background

Wheat is the second most-consumed staple food after maize in Namibia, yet the local production capacity is not sufficient to meet local consumption and thus Namibia is a net importer of wheat from country as far Russia and Poland who collectively accounts for almost 60 percent of its imports. The main products that contain wheat as the main ingredient include bread, pizza, beer, pasta, and noodles. The production of wheat for Namibia takes place in Kavango, North Central, Central, Karst (Otjozondjupa region), and South production areas under the irrigation system.

Analysis

As from the year 2010 until 2021 Namibia imported a total of 1 090 409 tons of wheat valued at N$ 6 172 227 432.23. A total of 112 020 tons of wheat was produced locally during the period under review. The largest production of wheat was recorded during the 2012/2013 period, with 14 819 tons. Wheat production has declined significantly over the years recording the least production during the year 2019/2020, with 4 466 tons of wheat for the entire year. See figure 1 below. Factors that are attributed to a low production of wheat for Namibia include high production costs and unfavorable climatic conditions.

During the year 2020/2021, local production accounted for 37 percent of total demand and the rest of 63 percent of wheat was imported at the value of N$ 64 074 256. The biggest production of local wheat occurred during the months of October 2020 to January 2021. See figure 2 below. The country’s constant shortage of wheat has led to an increase in the domestic prices of wheat by 15 percent during the 2020/2021 marketing season. The domestic price escalation was also attributed to an increase in global wheat prices and the supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Figure 1: Wheat (2010-2021)

Figure 2: Wheat (April 2020-March 2021)

Outlook

We anticipate that the local production of wheat will remain subdued for May and June 2021 due to the fact that wheat is cultivated winter time. The production of wheat will increase during the fourth quarter of 2021 into the first quarter of 2022 as a result of good rains received. The importation of wheat from South Africa in the coming months will be affected due to supply chain disruptions as a result of the social unrest that occurred in the country in the past weeks.

Recommendations

Local producers must take complete advantage of the marketing schemes implemented by the Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB) to successfully market wheat. In order to boost the local production of wheat investment in improved seeds, fertilizers, water availability and training is vital. It is also important that commercial and development banks provide crop producers with tailor fit financing. This will furthermore enable farmers to be more competitive in the context of the new dawn around AFCFTA.

Background

White maize is one of the most important staple food crops in Namibia. The country produces white maize both under rain-fed and irrigation mainly for human consumption, but it has become an important input for animal feed for farmers. White maize is the main source of calories for the majority of households in Namibia other food products include corn flakes (corn puffs) breakfast cereals or snacks such as popcorn to name but a few. The production of white maize takes place in Zambezi, Kavango, North Central, Karst (Maize triangle), and the Central and South production zones. White maize is cultivated from October to December each year and harvested from April to October each year. Namibia’s climate is distinctly arid in the greater parts of the country, affecting the local production of white maize, thus resulting in seasonal fluctuation of production marketed.

Analysis

The production of white maize has increased over the past years, although considerable declines have been recorded in 2013, 2015, and 2019 as a result of drought. Drought spells have become a common feature in Namibia and this has led to a decline in agricultural production. During the year 2015, Namibia experienced severe drought which led to a fall in the local production of white maize by 35 percent relative to the year before. The domestic production of 43,948 tonnes of white maize accounted for nearly 30 percent of the domestic demand. The supply shortage for white maize is continuously covered by imports from South Africa as the country’s production does not meet the demand for white maize. See figure 1 below.

Figure 1: White Maize (2010-2021)

During the year 2020 Namibia reported above-average rainfall which resulted in good harvests recorded for the months of May and June 2020. Figure 2 below shows that during the period of 2020/2021, the largest portion of white maize produced came from the Karst production area recording up to 59 percent of white maize. The Hardap (South) production area had zero production of white maize due to water shortage. The country banned the importation of white maize from 01 June to 19 October 2020 to allow producers to market white maize. As a result, local demand exceeded local supply by September 2020 due to a depletion of white maize, leading to the importation of white maize starting as early as October than anticipated. See figure 3 below.

Figure 2: White maize production tons per area (2020/2021)

Figure 3: White Maize (April 2020-March 2021)

Outlook

The outlook on the local production of white maize for Namibia from April to June 2021 which is considered as the time for harvesting is positive due to good rains that the country reported in the early months of 2021, bumper harvests are expected for white maize. However, with South Africa being the leading partner for the trade market for agricultural commodities for Namibia both imports and exports accounting for 65.7 and 78.8 percent during the first quarter of 2021, should local demand outweigh local production the country will need to import white maize to meet local demand. We anticipate that the importation of white maize from South Africa in the coming months will be negatively affected due to road infrastructure and supply chain disruptions as a result of social unrest that occurred in South Africa during the past weeks.

Recommendations

Namibia remains a net importer of white maize due to supply constraints faced by the farmers and bad climatic conditions. In order for the country to boost local white maize production to meet local demand and become global competitive in the white maize production, we recommend the country increase investments in higher-yielding seeds, expand of planting of white maize, and make use of other efficient farming techniques to increase production.