Executive summary
- International arrivals have been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. This has resulted in Namibia recording upto 378 international arrivals in April 2020, the lowest in history.
- A decline in the number of arrivals between the start of the Covid-19 Pandemic until January 2022 was a result of the travel restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus.
- Covid-19 cases reached its peak in June 2021 recording a total of 35659 cases, this has led to a drastic decline in the number of arrivals due to a low travelers confidence to travel to Namibia. See figure 1 below
Analysis
- On an annual basis, international arrivals increased to 11888 for January 2022 from 3190 recorded for January 2021
- The adoption of digital health solutions for safe travels, vaccine rollouts and the introduction of vaccine booster shoots has also led to improvements in the international arrivals
- Total arrivals began to record a positive growth from the month of July 2021 upto January 2022, this is augmented by radical decline in the number of Covid-19 cases recorded per month, which boosted international travelers confidence. See figure 2 below.
Figure 1: Monthly HKIA Arrivals vs. Monthly Covid-19 cases, Namibia (March 2020-January 2022)
Figure 2: HKIA Arrivals Year on Year % growth rates, Namibia (March 2020-Jan 2022)
Outlook
A drastic decline in the number of Covid-19 cases for Namibia will give international travelers confidence to travel and this will lead to an increase in the number of arrivals in the short to medium term. The vaccine efficacy, effectiveness of the aggressive vaccine rollout and the booster shoots, remains key to reduce the number of Covid-19 infections and hence improve the outlook for travel retail and tourism for the Namibian economy.