- Background
According to the World Tourism Organization, international tourism is on its way back to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people traveling in the first quarter of 2023 as in the same period of 2022. During the first quarter of 2023, international arrivals had reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels. During this period, an estimated 235 million tourists traveled internationally, more than doubling the figure for the same period in 2022. This is an indication that tourism has maintained its resilience. Additionally, according to revised 2022 data, over 960 million tourists traveled internationally last year, implying that two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic numbers were recovered with the African continent reaching 88% of 2019 levels.
The domestic tourism activity, as measured by total airport passenger arrivals, improved significantly year on year with total tourist arrivals increasing year on year to 81 614 for the first quarter of 2023. The recovery could be primarily attributed to the normalization of travel activity following the removal of the Covid-19 restrictions as the economy opened up. The Covid-19 pandemic, as well as shifting consumer preferences and more significant international developments, many of which cannot always be easily predicted and catered to, have forced Namibia’s tourism industry to adapt over the past few years. Namibia is known for its stunning landscapes, rich biodiversity, and unique cultural experiences, making it an attractive tourist destination in the region and on the continent.
2. Analysis
2.1 Quarter 1 2023
During quarter 1 of 2023 total arrivals were 37.0% lower than the pre-pandemic level when compared to the first quarter of 2019 (pre-pandemic period), the yearly increase in airport passenger arrivals was reflected in both international and regional arrivals. Quarter-on-quarter, the total number of tourist arrivals declined by 15.6% from 96 755 recorded during the fourth quarter of 2022. This could be attributed to seasonal patterns that influence traveler’s choices. Furthermore, international arrivals increased year on year, from 18 207 recorded during the first quarter of 2022 to 37 654 recorded in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, regional arrivals increased from 30 890 recorded in the first quarter of 2022 to 43 960 recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The increase in international and regional arrivals could be attributed to an improvement in consumer confidence that could have led to a high demand in traveling activities.
2.2 May 2023
During the month under review (May 2023) a total airport arrival declined to 40902, down from 43943 arrivals recorded in April 2023. This translated into a 6% monthly decline (Figure 1). The decline was attributed to a decline in Hosea Kutako International Airport (HKIA) with a decline of 11% followed by the regional airport arrivals declining by 5%. This could have been attributed to low regional and international travelers’ confidence ascribed to a high cost of living, leading to cautious spending on traveling activities. Notwithstanding this, total airport arrivals for May 2023 were driven by international arrivals taking up 43.3% of total arrivals followed by regional arrivals with 40.8% and the remaining 15.9% was domestic arrivals.
On an annual basis, total airport arrivals increased by 32.7% when compared to 2022. This increase could be attributed to improved travelers’ confidence amidst the confluence of factors that influences consumers spending patterns (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Monthly Total Airport Arrivals (May 2022 – May 2023)
Source: NAC &HEI RESEARCH
Figure 2: International, Regional vs. Domestic Arrivals (May 2022 – May 2023)
Source: NAC & HEI RESEARCH
3. Outlook
The economic environment will continue to be the primary determinant of how effectively the tourism sector recovers in 2023 and beyond. However, we anticipate an increase in arrivals for the month of June, particularly domestic arrivals, given that June is a school holiday month, and as a result, we expect an increase in demand for travel-related activities.