Background
Wheat is the second most-consumed staple food after maize in Namibia, yet the local production capacity is not sufficient to meet local consumption and thus Namibia is a net importer of wheat from country as far Russia and Poland who collectively accounts for almost 60 percent of its imports. The main products that contain wheat as the main ingredient include bread, pizza, beer, pasta, and noodles. The production of wheat for Namibia takes place in Kavango, North Central, Central, Karst (Otjozondjupa region), and South production areas under the irrigation system.
Analysis
As from the year 2010 until 2021 Namibia imported a total of 1 090 409 tons of wheat valued at N$ 6 172 227 432.23. A total of 112 020 tons of wheat was produced locally during the period under review. The largest production of wheat was recorded during the 2012/2013 period, with 14 819 tons. Wheat production has declined significantly over the years recording the least production during the year 2019/2020, with 4 466 tons of wheat for the entire year. See figure 1 below. Factors that are attributed to a low production of wheat for Namibia include high production costs and unfavorable climatic conditions.
During the year 2020/2021, local production accounted for 37 percent of total demand and the rest of 63 percent of wheat was imported at the value of N$ 64 074 256. The biggest production of local wheat occurred during the months of October 2020 to January 2021. See figure 2 below. The country’s constant shortage of wheat has led to an increase in the domestic prices of wheat by 15 percent during the 2020/2021 marketing season. The domestic price escalation was also attributed to an increase in global wheat prices and the supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Figure 1: Wheat (2010-2021)
Figure 2: Wheat (April 2020-March 2021)
Outlook
We anticipate that the local production of wheat will remain subdued for May and June 2021 due to the fact that wheat is cultivated winter time. The production of wheat will increase during the fourth quarter of 2021 into the first quarter of 2022 as a result of good rains received. The importation of wheat from South Africa in the coming months will be affected due to supply chain disruptions as a result of the social unrest that occurred in the country in the past weeks.
Recommendations
Local producers must take complete advantage of the marketing schemes implemented by the Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB) to successfully market wheat. In order to boost the local production of wheat investment in improved seeds, fertilizers, water availability and training is vital. It is also important that commercial and development banks provide crop producers with tailor fit financing. This will furthermore enable farmers to be more competitive in the context of the new dawn around AFCFTA.